Polymarket Trader

OverlookHotel

0x1d379e322ef813587a3e13ad79857c45edc7f4a4

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $31.1K
Realized PnL: $53.67K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $14.67K
Potential payout: $139.7K
Potential profit: $125.03K
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$8.56K

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $5.53K
Potential payout: $65K
Potential profit: $59.48K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$972.61

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $2.59K
Potential payout: $19.9K
Potential profit: $17.31K
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$1.16K

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $2.69K
Potential payout: $10.97K
Potential profit: $8.28K
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $501.82

Yes position

Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.45K
Potential profit: $6.45K
User PnL: -$603.57

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $32.51
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.97K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$174.7

Yes position

Trump out as President by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$89.99

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $255.66
Potential payout: $4.49K
Potential profit: $4.23K
Multiplier: 17.54x
User PnL: -$438.53

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.81K
Potential payout: $2.81K
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.82K

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.89K
Potential profit: $1.89K
User PnL: -$564.37

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $1.52K
Potential payout: $1.64K
Potential profit: $123.35
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.13K

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $40.96
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.16K
Multiplier: 29.41x
User PnL: -$77.28

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $1.13K
User PnL: -$172.78

Yes position

Trump out as President by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $4.5
Potential payout: $999.6
Potential profit: $995.1
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$65.47

Yes position

GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $121.4
Potential payout: $783.23
Potential profit: $661.83
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$220.21

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $31.53
Potential payout: $726.45
Potential profit: $694.92
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: -$55.61

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $500
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $365

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $14.8
Potential payout: $276.61
Potential profit: $261.81
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$17.73

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $234.35
Potential payout: $234.35
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $62.87

Yes position

Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $208.92
Potential profit: $208.92
User PnL: -$1.03

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $91.11
Potential profit: $91.11
User PnL: -$13.16

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $49.25
Potential payout: $49.25
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $39.57

Yes position

Will 10-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.75
Potential profit: $38.75
User PnL: -$1.31

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $10.88
Potential payout: $16.61
Potential profit: $5.73
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $7.72

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.71K

Yes position

Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%?

Ends Apr 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.95K

Yes position

Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.4K

No position

Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.4K

Yes position

10-year Treasury yield >4.5% Friday?

Ends Jun 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3K

No position

Trump gets more black voters than in 2020?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $606.59

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $599.56

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.4% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $546.73

Yes position

Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $493.21

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $434.12

No position

Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $53.33

Yes position

Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.45

No position

Will Rudy Giuliani attend presidential inauguration?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20.3

Yes position

Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 31%
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: $19.63

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.3% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.77

No position

Will 3+ Trump cabinet picks fail to get appointed?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16.43

Trump position

Who will win Latino men?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.74

Yes position

Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.86

No position

Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.65

Yes position

Will there be 165,000,000-170,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?

Ends Dec 16, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.55

Yes position

Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 53%
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $9.66

Yes position

Will Trump win 55% of voters without a college degree?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.4

No position

Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.62

Yes position

Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.23

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Yes 18% 96.72 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 28% 60 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 28% 16.02 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 27% 5 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 28% 61.66 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 27% 18 shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Yes 32% 20 shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Yes 31% 1,371 shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Yes 30% 343.17 shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Yes 17% 439.6 shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Yes 16% 16.98 shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Yes 16% 60 shares