Polymarket Trader

firegold

0x1d5f88f1b97317cccad804374e5bd847512e634d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $72.25K
Realized PnL: $28.88K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $18.14K
Potential payout: $18.26K
Potential profit: $118.67
User PnL: $3.25K

No position

Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $9.89K
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $105
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $388.98

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $6.29K
Potential payout: $6.8K
Potential profit: $510
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $352.24

No position

Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $4.93K
Potential payout: $5.03K
Potential profit: $98.05
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $317.09

No position

Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $4.38K
Potential payout: $5.01K
Potential profit: $626.06
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $682.1

Yes position

Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 23, 2026

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $4.36K
Potential payout: $4.59K
Potential profit: $229.3
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $572.26

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $579.99
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $3.42K
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $2.48K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $525
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $66.82

Yes position

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 92.8%
Current value: $2.52K
Potential payout: $2.71K
Potential profit: $195.14
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $172.07

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $2.4K
Potential payout: $2.54K
Potential profit: $138.53
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $700.12

Yes position

Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $2.2K
Potential payout: $2.47K
Potential profit: $272.1
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $347.41

No position

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $1.35K
Potential payout: $2.31K
Potential profit: $958.51
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: $637.03

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $2.16K
Potential payout: $2.17K
Potential profit: $9.78
User PnL: $124.68

Yes position

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $1.88K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $120.04
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $103.79

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $369
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.63K
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $41

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $209
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.79K
Multiplier: 9.57x
User PnL: $17

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.3%
Current value: $225
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.78K
Multiplier: 8.89x
User PnL: $69

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $113
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.89K
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: $11

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.3%
Current value: $265
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.73K
Multiplier: 7.55x
User PnL: -$69

No position

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 23, 2026

Implied probability: 95.2%
Current value: $1.87K
Potential payout: $1.96K
Potential profit: $95.27
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $206.78

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $1.36K
Potential payout: $1.96K
Potential profit: $596.94
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$146.26

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $1.58K
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $16.8
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $119.2

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $1.54K
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $13.23
User PnL: $252.3

No position

Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $1.15K
Potential payout: $1.51K
Potential profit: $353.92
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $308.82

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.21K

Yes position

No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.81K

Yes position

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.29K

Yes position

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.94K

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.45K

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.34K

Yes position

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $977.74

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $856

Yes position

Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $789.48

Yes position

Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $734.07

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $705.2

Yes position

Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $701.83

Yes position

Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $697.7

No position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $687.17

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $665.86

Yes position

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $611.64

Yes position

Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $603.58

Yes position

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $584.06

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $578.96

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $556

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $535.74

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $530.72

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $525

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $505.35

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Yes 69% 57.36 shares
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?

No 77% 19.11 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?

No 38% 19.7 shares
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

Yes 17.9% 210 shares
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?

Yes 99.5% 220 shares
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?

Yes 17.5% 135 shares
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?

Yes 82% 32.27 shares
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?

Yes 80.6% 1,521.58 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

No 82% 30 shares
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Yes 80% 20 shares
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more?

Yes 34% 200 shares
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

No 42% 30.08 shares