0x1Da867ce1f1AaFe706f543F67a6692ad5B35Aa05-1775352334514

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $864.44
Potential profit: $864.44
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $535.48
Potential payout: $566.35
Potential profit: $30.87
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $135.48

No position

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $49.94
Potential payout: $499.42
Potential profit: $449.48
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$128.06

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $411.71
Potential payout: $467.85
Potential profit: $56.14
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $11.71

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $465.21
Potential profit: $465.21
User PnL: -$200

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $266.42
Potential payout: $447.76
Potential profit: $181.34
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$33.58

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $360.39
Potential payout: $389.61
Potential profit: $29.22
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $60.39

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $201.92
Potential payout: $384.62
Potential profit: $182.69
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $1.92

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $340.94
Potential payout: $352.94
Potential profit: $12
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $40.94

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $296.64
Potential payout: $346.95
Potential profit: $50.31
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$3.36

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $308.62
Potential payout: $344.83
Potential profit: $36.21
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $8.62

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $14.89
Potential payout: $334.58
Potential profit: $319.69
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$185.11

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $309.84
Potential payout: $327.87
Potential profit: $18.03
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $109.84

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $322.58
Potential profit: $322.58
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $283.63
Potential payout: $287.22
Potential profit: $3.59
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $82.63

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $38.57
Potential payout: $285.71
Potential profit: $247.14
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$61.43

Yes position

Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $190.28
Potential payout: $273.82
Potential profit: $83.54
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$9.72

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $233.78
Potential payout: $270.27
Potential profit: $36.49
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $33.78

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $30.35
Potential payout: $263.88
Potential profit: $233.53
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$70.65

No position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $203.9
Potential payout: $259.74
Potential profit: $55.84
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $3.9

No position

Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $247.75
Potential payout: $256.47
Potential profit: $8.72
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $47.75

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $221.84
Potential payout: $245.12
Potential profit: $23.29
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $20.84

No position

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $167.51
Potential payout: $241.06
Potential profit: $73.55
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$32.49

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $233.18
Potential payout: $235.29
Potential profit: $2.12
User PnL: $33.18

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.33

Yes position

Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.24

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.62

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.68

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.82

Yes position

U.S. strike on Nigeria by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.07

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.38

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.25

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.16

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

Will USD reach 18,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.87

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.53

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.77

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.24

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.87

Yes position

Will Putin visit China by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.24

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.87

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.31

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: April

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.06

No position

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.65

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.28

Yes position

Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.49

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET