No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $815.31
- Potential profit
- $815.31
- User PnL
- -$471.89
Polymarket Trader
KoalaSenpai
0x1db1f6a71623f74a32348a209f41c2b9c1bcaa4b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $25.71
- Realized PnL
- $774.05
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 23
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.48
- Potential profit
- $43.48
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.41
- Potential profit
- $29.41
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $22.73
- Potential profit
- $22.7
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.98
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.02
- Potential profit
- $22.02
- User PnL
- -$4.84
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.6
- Potential profit
- $19.6
- User PnL
- -$9.8
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.15
- Potential profit
- $18.15
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.95
- Potential profit
- $16.95
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $12.2
- Potential payout
- $12.2
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $2.2
Yes position
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.33
- Potential profit
- $8.33
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $1.68
- Potential payout
- $8.18
- Potential profit
- $6.5
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 12.3%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $6.13
- Potential profit
- $5.38
- Multiplier
- 8.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $1.16
- Potential payout
- $4.95
- Potential profit
- $3.79
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- $0.16
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $2.86
- Potential payout
- $2.86
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.86
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $1.26
- Potential payout
- $2.27
- Potential profit
- $1.01
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $0.26
No position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.8%
- Current value
- $1.24
- Potential payout
- $1.63
- Potential profit
- $0.39
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $0.24
Yes position
Will Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Ends Aug 14, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $0.06
- Potential payout
- $1.32
- Potential profit
- $1.26
- Multiplier
- 23.81x
- User PnL
- -$0.93
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Ends Aug 14, 2028- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $0.36
- Potential payout
- $1.27
- Potential profit
- $0.91
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$0.63
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Ends Aug 10, 2028- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $0.13
- Potential payout
- $1.26
- Potential profit
- $1.13
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.87
No position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $0.92
- Potential payout
- $1.23
- Potential profit
- $0.31
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $0.95
- Potential payout
- $1.14
- Potential profit
- $0.19
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
No position
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $1.1
- Potential payout
- $1.14
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?
Ends Aug 14, 2028- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $1.04
- Potential payout
- $1.11
- Potential profit
- $0.07
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205.97
Yes position
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $167
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6?
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.5
No position
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $54.2
Yes position
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.59
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.21
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.21
Yes position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $15.43
No position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.73
No position
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.63
Yes position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.76
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.36
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.11
Yes position
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.84
Yes position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.12
No position
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.06
No position
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.92
Yes position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.84
Yes position
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.95
No position
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.49
No position
Will Trump say "Left Behind" during Monday news conference?
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.46
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.36
Yes position
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.31
Yes position
Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.98
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Yes 51% 3.33 shares
- S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 15?Up 99.9% 1.69 shares
- Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?Yes 12% 8.33 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by April 30, 2026?Yes 5.3% 17.43 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?No 77% 1.3 shares
- Will Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?Yes 78% 1.26 shares
- Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?No 90% 1.1 shares
- Will Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?Yes 75% 1.31 shares
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?Yes 79% 1.24 shares
- S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 15?Up 58% 1.67 shares
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?Yes 6.6% 303.76 shares
- Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9-12%?Yes 0.2% 4,491.41 shares