El-popo

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $106.84
Potential payout: $124.96
Potential profit: $18.12
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.62

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $109.42
Potential payout: $119.58
Potential profit: $10.16
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026?

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $109.6
Potential payout: $115.42
Potential profit: $5.83
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $3.41

No position

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $104.41
Potential payout: $112.88
Potential profit: $8.47
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $3.95

No position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $101.32
Potential payout: $110.19
Potential profit: $8.87
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.27

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $91.31
Potential payout: $107.42
Potential profit: $16.11
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$1.07

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the LA-02 House seat?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $95.99
Potential payout: $103.78
Potential profit: $7.78
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $3.63

No position

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $91.93
Potential payout: $100.47
Potential profit: $8.54
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$1.51

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the AL-01 House seat?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $80.51
Potential payout: $86.11
Potential profit: $5.6
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.43

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the GA-09 House seat?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $79.48
Potential payout: $85.92
Potential profit: $6.44
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.43

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the IL-05 House seat?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $79.64
Potential payout: $85.18
Potential profit: $5.54
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.43

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the TN-01 House seat?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $79.46
Potential payout: $84.99
Potential profit: $5.52
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.42

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the TX-19 House seat?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $79.47
Potential payout: $84.1
Potential profit: $4.63
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the KY-01 House seat?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $77.84
Potential payout: $83.26
Potential profit: $5.41
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.42

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the KY-04 House seat?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $65.17
Potential payout: $70.46
Potential profit: $5.28
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.76

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the TX-11 House seat?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $63.74
Potential payout: $67.45
Potential profit: $3.71
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.34

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the KY-05 House seat?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $63.14
Potential payout: $66.81
Potential profit: $3.67
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0.33

No position

Will Trump's approval rating hit 25% in 2026?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $46.51
Potential payout: $50.55
Potential profit: $4.04
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will the Democrats win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 95%
Current value: $47.56
Potential payout: $50.06
Potential profit: $2.5
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Obama federally charged before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $47.13
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $2.88
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.18

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $30.12
Potential payout: $30.29
Potential profit: $0.17
User PnL: $0.56

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $29.87
Potential payout: $29.92
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $0.73

No position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $23.06
Potential payout: $27.78
Potential profit: $4.72
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$1.94

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $41

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Implied probability: 65.5%
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $27.07

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.34

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $14.38

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $8.43

No position

Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $6.28

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.8%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $4.69

No position

US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $3.95

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.82

No position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $3.6

No position

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $3.32

No position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.5%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $3.06

No position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.8%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $2.17

No position

Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.6%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.83

No position

Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.9%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.55

No position

Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.4%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.4

No position

Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.4%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.36

No position

Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.23

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $1.18

No position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Implied probability: 97.1%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $1.11

No position

Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.86

No position

Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.82

No position

Will Wes Moore announce a Presidential run before 2027?