Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $1.41K
- Potential payout
- $1.65K
- Potential profit
- $239.77
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $99.96
Polymarket Trader
negator512
0x1df2b172d9666c4eb35d8a7c176eed81b08dcdf4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.75K
- Realized PnL
- $656.65
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $772.59
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $278.55
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $45.53
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $636.13
- Potential profit
- $636.13
- User PnL
- -$377.79
Yes position
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 61%
- Current value
- $222.03
- Potential payout
- $363.98
- Potential profit
- $141.95
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- -$63.63
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $284.98
- Potential profit
- $284.98
- User PnL
- -$232.96
Yes position
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $279.99
- Potential profit
- $279.99
- User PnL
- -$165.37
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $175
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $25
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49%
- Current value
- $70.07
- Potential payout
- $142.99
- Potential profit
- $72.93
- Multiplier
- 2.04x
- User PnL
- $4.96
Yes position
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $136.49
- Potential profit
- $136.49
- User PnL
- -$14.07
Yes position
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $131.32
- Potential profit
- $131.32
- User PnL
- -$63.92
Yes position
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $109.95
- Potential profit
- $109.95
- User PnL
- -$76.38
Yes position
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $93.9
- Potential profit
- $93.9
- User PnL
- -$23.55
Yes position
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $80
- User PnL
- -$32.2
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $59.85
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $10.15
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $4.55
Yes position
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60.27
- Potential profit
- $60.27
- User PnL
- -$13.68
Yes position
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $60
- User PnL
- -$13
Yes position
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$8
No position
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.8%
- Current value
- $35.9
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $4.1
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $1.94
Yes position
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $39.92
- Potential profit
- $39.92
- User PnL
- -$21.01
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$26.91
No position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27
- Potential profit
- $27
- User PnL
- -$18.72
Yes position
Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$5.6
Yes position
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$2.93
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $159.07
Yes position
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $129.39
Yes position
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.19
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.37
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.2
No position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.3
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.87
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.6
Yes position
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.2
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?
Ends May 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.6
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.39
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.76
Yes position
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.4
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.2
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.58
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.5
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.38
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.73
No position
Kash Patel out by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.5
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.48
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.44
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.39
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.6
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Yes 76% 40 shares
- Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?Yes 28% 20 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No 74% 15.49 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?No 77% 41.1 shares
- Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?Yes 51% 20 shares
- Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?No 99.1% 25 shares
- Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?Yes 95% 20 shares
- Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?Yes 5% 110.29 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?No 65% 10 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by April 30, 2026?No 94% 5 shares
- Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?No 82.9% 10 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No 92% 10 shares