Y
Yes position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $773.25
- Potential profit
- $773.25
- User PnL
- -$3.68
Polymarket Trader
Elias-Eli
0x1ea26feb447ddfdaa90ddd4efc2b65eb0e8c9f60
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $10.79
- Realized PnL
- $260.59
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Y
Yes position
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.6%
- Current value
- $10.79
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $132.07
- Multiplier
- 13.25x
- User PnL
- $9.79
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $104.6
- Potential profit
- $104.6
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 4?
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 6?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $61.43
- Potential profit
- $61.43
- User PnL
- -$29
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on June 6?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $47.73
- Potential profit
- $47.73
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.93
- Potential profit
- $42.93
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.85
- Potential profit
- $38.85
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$18.06
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.81
- Potential profit
- $25.81
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.81
- Potential profit
- $23.81
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.22
- Potential profit
- $22.22
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.42
- Potential profit
- $21.42
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.28
- Potential profit
- $21.28
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.86
- Potential profit
- $17.86
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 4?
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.78
- Potential profit
- $17.78
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 4?
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $16.67
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.71
- Potential profit
- $14.71
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 4?
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $14.29
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.79
- Potential profit
- $13.79
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.51
- Potential profit
- $13.51
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $12.5
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $12
- User PnL
- -$5.52
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.67
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.08
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.33
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.27
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4?
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.56
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.47
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.29
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 10?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.92
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.62
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.51
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.33
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.33
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.33
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.33
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.33
Yes position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.31
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
Ends Mar 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.19
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.05
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.05
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.94
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.77
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.49
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 6?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.42
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 18?No 86% 2.33 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 18?No 90% 2.22 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 18?No 96.8% 2.07 shares
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?Yes 23% 4.35 shares
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?Yes 0.7% 142.86 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on July 17?No 95% 2.11 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 17?No 95% 3.16 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 17?No 93% 2.15 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 18?No 90% 2.22 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?No 4.3% 24.27 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 16?No 8.2% 24.28 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 17?No 85.9% 1.16 shares