Polymarket Trader

Tanador

0x1ecc7a2df5f34a31d7c72bdda9036ce6036e5466

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $624.01
Realized PnL: $669.95
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 21
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $696.3
Potential profit: $696.3
User PnL: -$123.06

No position

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $85.1
Potential payout: $370
Potential profit: $284.9
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $7.5

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $299.99
Potential profit: $299.99
User PnL: -$90

No position

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $226.8
Potential payout: $280
Potential profit: $53.2
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $96.9

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $180.01
Potential profit: $180.01
User PnL: -$106.88

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $92.76
Potential payout: $102.5
Potential profit: $9.74
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $12.36

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.99
User PnL: -$18.5

No position

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $75.2
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $4.8
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $28.9

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70.42
Potential profit: $70.42
User PnL: -$50

No position

Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $49.83
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $0.17
User PnL: $9.83

No position

Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$41.06

No position

Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?

Ends Oct 1, 2026

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $48.58
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $1.42
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $18.58

No position

Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $45.74
Potential payout: $49.99
Potential profit: $4.25
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $4.75

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 20?

Ends Nov 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.44
Potential profit: $44.44
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$10

No position

U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $39.99
Potential profit: $39.99
User PnL: -$21.6

No position

Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37
Potential profit: $37
User PnL: -$9.99

No position

S&P 500 all time high by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$2.2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 7PM ET

Ends Dec 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$8.2

Yes position

Will Apple (AAPL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of January 5?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$0.92

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET

Ends Dec 12, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.49

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.5

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.85

No position

Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.85

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 6?

Ends Dec 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.83

No position

Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.32

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112,000 on October 16?

Ends Oct 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.86

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.2

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.95

No position

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.5

No position

Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26

No position

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.48

No position

Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 7?

Ends Nov 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.43

No position

Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.2

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 6?

Ends Jan 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on December 18?

Ends Dec 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.9

No position

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10

No position

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.5

No position

Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.2

No position

Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 22, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.11

Yes position

Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.6

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.89

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: December

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.8

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 71% 70.42 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

No 20% 196.3 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

No 16.2% 140 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

No 14.9% 40 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

No 27% 5.09 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Yes 81.7% 50 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Yes 71.5% 10 shares
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?

No 30% 30 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Yes 45% 10 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Yes 25% 20 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

No 55% 25 shares
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?

No 45% 50 shares