Yes position
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $61.53K
- Potential profit
- $61.53K
- User PnL
- -$301.76
Polymarket Trader
archaic
@archaic_on_Poly
0x1f0a343513aa6060488fabe96960e6d1e177f7aa
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $70.89K
- Realized PnL
- $37.3K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40K
- Potential profit
- $40K
- User PnL
- -$184.12
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.13K
- Potential profit
- $30.13K
- User PnL
- -$30.13
No position
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $13.82K
- Potential payout
- $13.91K
- Potential profit
- $83.45
- User PnL
- $711.69
No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $11.37K
- Potential payout
- $11.42K
- Potential profit
- $51.38
- User PnL
- $319.3
No position
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $10.32K
- Potential payout
- $10.47K
- Potential profit
- $151.89
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $727.72
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $6.46K
- Potential payout
- $7.65K
- Potential profit
- $1.19K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $19.47
No position
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $6.55K
- Potential payout
- $7.32K
- Potential profit
- $768.09
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$91.22
Yes position
Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?
Ends Oct 15, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.23K
- Potential profit
- $7.23K
- User PnL
- -$14.83
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.3%
- Current value
- $6.59K
- Potential payout
- $7.07K
- Potential profit
- $477.3
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $60.51
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.91K
- Potential profit
- $6.91K
- User PnL
- -$13.3
Yes position
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.7K
- Potential profit
- $6.7K
- User PnL
- -$6.7
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $3.49K
- Potential payout
- $6.28K
- Potential profit
- $2.8K
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- -$194.55
Yes position
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?
Ends Jun 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.04K
- Potential profit
- $6.04K
- User PnL
- -$6.04
Yes position
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.89K
- Potential profit
- $5.89K
- User PnL
- -$22.42
Yes position
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.03K
- Potential profit
- $5.03K
- User PnL
- -$7.07
No position
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Current value
- $4.71K
- Potential payout
- $5.02K
- Potential profit
- $311.24
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $187.62
No position
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.97K
- Potential profit
- $4.97K
- User PnL
- -$16.72
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $2.35
- Potential payout
- $4.71K
- Potential profit
- $4.71K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.87
No position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.2%
- Current value
- $3.81K
- Potential payout
- $4.47K
- Potential profit
- $663.65
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$132.06
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.25K
- Potential profit
- $4.25K
- User PnL
- -$65.2
Yes position
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.03K
- Potential profit
- $4.03K
- User PnL
- -$65.87
No position
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $3.77K
- Potential payout
- $3.97K
- Potential profit
- $198.51
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $224.51
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.81K
Yes position
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.69K
Yes position
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.69K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.01K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.86K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.83K
No position
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.69K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66K
Yes position
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66K
Yes position
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
Ends Dec 8, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.61K
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42K
Yes position
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.34K
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
No position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.23K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.23K
Yes position
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?
Ends Jun 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
No position
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17K
No position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
No position
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03K
No position
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.02K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?No 96% 25.95 shares
- Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?No 96% 10 shares
- Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?No 94% 428.44 shares
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes 94.3% 345.15 shares
- Kurds declare independence from Iran?No 99% 100 shares
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?No 98.1% 10 shares
- Kurds declare independence from Iran?No 98.9% 157.95 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.4% 3,668.11 shares
- Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 99.5% 56.53 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 79% 646.68 shares
- Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Yes 80% 1,835.18 shares
- Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?No 98.9% 897.11 shares