N
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $2.12
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $81.22
- Multiplier
- 39.37x
- User PnL
- -$2.88
Polymarket Trader
MesmoTankie38
0x1f647f6ea3aca26a779305ba656fee40d86e2002
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $34.77
- Realized PnL
- $25.68
- Win rate
- 69.2%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 13
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.29
- Potential payout
- $52.63
- Potential profit
- $52.34
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.71
N
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $9.16
- Potential payout
- $17.78
- Potential profit
- $8.62
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $1.16
N
No position
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $6.81
- Potential payout
- $11.85
- Potential profit
- $5.04
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.91
- Multiplier
- 111.11x
- User PnL
- -$4.18
Y
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $1.55
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.45
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $0.55
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 49%
- Current value
- $4.16
- Potential payout
- $8.48
- Potential profit
- $4.32
- Multiplier
- 2.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $5.34
- Potential payout
- $5.75
- Potential profit
- $0.4
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.34
No position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.7%
- Current value
- $3.73
- Potential payout
- $4.51
- Potential profit
- $0.78
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $0.73
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.92
- Potential profit
- $1.92
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $1.52
- Potential payout
- $1.59
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $12.86
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $5.96
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $3.65
No position
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.33
Down position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.08
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.31
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.12
No position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.29
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.71
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 78.1% 31.83 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?No 50% 8.48 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?No 37.7% 31.83 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 45% 17.78 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 95% 24.9 shares
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?No 60% 11.85 shares
- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes 10% 10 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 6% 83.33 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 22.4% 30.66 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 43.5% 10 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 42.4% 30.66 shares
- Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Yes 1.9% 52.63 shares