Yes position
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $1.26K
- Potential payout
- $51.51K
- Potential profit
- $50.24K
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$25.75
Polymarket Trader
ChadStarmer
0x1f9f03e7ce52979b658b0bb75b483ff923fda025
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.53K
- Realized PnL
- $5.54K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.54K
- Potential profit
- $11.54K
- User PnL
- -$128.51
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $759.76
- Potential profit
- $759.76
- User PnL
- -$52.34
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $356.05
- Potential payout
- $411.62
- Potential profit
- $55.57
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $101.04
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $239.89
- Potential payout
- $321.99
- Potential profit
- $82.11
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $28.03
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $255.82
- Potential payout
- $302.75
- Potential profit
- $46.93
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $157.92
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $104.27
- Potential payout
- $152.22
- Potential profit
- $47.95
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $39.37
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $113.41
- Potential payout
- $115.08
- Potential profit
- $1.67
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $14.44
Yes position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.1%
- Current value
- $53.92
- Potential payout
- $112.1
- Potential profit
- $58.18
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- $3.5
N
No position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $82.77
- Potential payout
- $100.33
- Potential profit
- $17.56
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $3.56
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $88.34
- Potential profit
- $88.34
- User PnL
- -$24.73
Yes position
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59.3
- Potential profit
- $59.3
- User PnL
- -$22.22
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $37.92
- Potential payout
- $37.94
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $13.69
Yes position
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 81.4%
- Current value
- $26.79
- Potential payout
- $32.93
- Potential profit
- $6.14
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $7.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- $978.86
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $732.38
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $601.03
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $591.05
Yes position
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $384.38
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $302.8
Yes position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $290.12
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $282.52
No position
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $179.98
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $167.5
Yes position
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $133.99
Yes position
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $109.22
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $96.56
Yes position
Canada recession before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.43
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.8
No position
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.39
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- User PnL
- $72.3
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.93x
- User PnL
- $65.18
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.66
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $62.23
No position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.91
Yes position
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $41.08
No position
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Coast Guard event?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 43% 97.21 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 42% 55 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 70% 205.1 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 69% 100 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 70% 67.86 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 68% 455.37 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 38% 6,924.21 shares
- Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?No 68% 253.24 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 26% 15 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 25% 826.31 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 65% 5 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 61% 205 shares