No position
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Current value
- $4.73
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.16
Polymarket Trader
0x1fad...e1ff
0x1faddb00a36999db1f7ceff0a360d9a47a56e1ff
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $106.34
- Realized PnL
- $36.01
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
N
No position
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $4.95
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.2
No position
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $4.88
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.13
N
No position
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $4.99
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.32
N
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $4.75
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.25
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $4.98
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $4.98
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.29
N
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $5
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.31
N
No position
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $4.81
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.19
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $4.91
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.09
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.22
N
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $4.75
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.25
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $3.85
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.15
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.88
N
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 2?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $4.97
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $4.77
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.23
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $4.68
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.33
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $4.99
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.24
N
No position
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $4.95
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.25
N
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 4?
Ends Jul 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $4.87
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.16
N
No position
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $4.95
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.25
No position
Over $100M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $4.96
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- User PnL
- $0.26
N
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $4.98
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.2%
- Current value
- $4.66
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.34
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.64
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.63
No position
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.85
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.77
Up position
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56
Yes position
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45
Yes position
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45
Yes position
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42
No position
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4
Yes position
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 on May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.32
Up position
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on March 30?
Ends Mar 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
Netherlands position
Spread: Norway (-1.5)
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2
Morocco position
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17
No position
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on April 8?
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.15
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 8?
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.06
No position
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 Week of May 25 2026?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03
No position
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.96
No position
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.95
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 93.7% 5 shares
- Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by July 31?No 95% 5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 94% 5 shares
- Over $100M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?No 94% 5 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?No 93.9% 5 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes 94.6% 5 shares
- 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?No 95% 5 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 7?No 94.4% 5 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?No 94.8% 5 shares
- Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30?No 95% 5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?No 95% 5 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?No 93.3% 5 shares