lomneivan

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $200.18K
Potential payout: $203.22K
Potential profit: $3.05K
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $77.76K

No position

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $178.82K
Potential profit: $178.82K
User PnL: -$27.51K

Yes position

Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $133K
Potential profit: $133K
User PnL: -$71.82K

Yes position

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $456.02
Potential payout: $82.91K
Potential profit: $82.46K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$7.44K

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $19.89K
Potential payout: $46.81K
Potential profit: $26.92K
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$1.44K

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $42.79K
Potential payout: $43.12K
Potential profit: $323.37
User PnL: $7.49K

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.21K
Potential profit: $22.21K
User PnL: -$91.02

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $15.76K
Potential payout: $19.34K
Potential profit: $3.58K
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $481.57

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $17.29K
Potential payout: $17.42K
Potential profit: $130.63
User PnL: $4.75K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $16.86K
Potential payout: $16.9K
Potential profit: $42.25
User PnL: $3.84K

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $10.48K
Potential payout: $12.86K
Potential profit: $2.38K
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $320.2

No position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $9.66K
Potential payout: $11.71K
Potential profit: $2.05K
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $409.82

Yes position

Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $5.73
Potential payout: $11.46K
Potential profit: $11.46K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$696.05

Yes position

Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.82K
Potential profit: $9.82K
User PnL: -$687.66

No position

Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $70.5
Potential payout: $9.4K
Potential profit: $9.33K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$6.65K

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $12.35
Potential payout: $8.24K
Potential profit: $8.22K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$756.36

Yes position

Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $6.4K
Potential payout: $6.4K
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $1.94K

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $2.58K
Potential payout: $6.07K
Potential profit: $3.49K
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$273.23

Yes position

Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.02K
Potential profit: $6.02K
User PnL: -$892.35

No position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Implied probability: 44.5%
Current value: $2.18K
Potential payout: $4.9K
Potential profit: $2.72K
Multiplier: 2.25x
User PnL: -$122.39

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Implied probability: 88.7%
Current value: $2.34K
Potential payout: $2.64K
Potential profit: $297.85
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $1.27K

No position

Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.81K
Potential payout: $1.81K
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $555.01

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $8.02
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.6K
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: $4.31

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.95
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $1.3K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$37.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.67K

Yes position

Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.24K

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.03K

No position

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.34K

No position

Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.96K

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.84K

Yes position

Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.74K

No position

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.09K

Yes position

Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.52K

Yes position

Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.32K

No position

Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.9K

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.07K

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.57K

No position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.25K

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $2.79K

Yes position

Will Tisza win at least 120 seats?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.6K

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16K

No position

Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $766.19

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $500

No position

Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $325.9

Yes position

Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 20% and 25%?

Ends Apr 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $294.5

Yes position

Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.05

No position

First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?