Ambeo-

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $24.72
Potential payout: $3.8K
Potential profit: $3.78K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$9.51

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $33.01
Potential payout: $3.48K
Potential profit: $3.44K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$8.69

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $7.11
Potential payout: $2.37K
Potential profit: $2.36K
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$79.72

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.37K
Potential profit: $2.37K
User PnL: -$118.6

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $2.98
Potential payout: $1.99K
Potential profit: $1.99K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$29.98

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 8.2%
Current value: $156.48
Potential payout: $1.92K
Potential profit: $1.76K
Multiplier: 12.27x
User PnL: -$36.39

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.9K
Potential profit: $1.9K
User PnL: -$31.32

Yes position

Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $10.45
Potential payout: $1.9K
Potential profit: $1.89K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$4.75

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.71K
Potential profit: $1.71K
User PnL: -$181.04

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $1.07K
User PnL: -$17.08

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $950
Potential profit: $950
User PnL: -$11.65

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $939.95
Potential profit: $939.95
User PnL: -$21.33

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $878.99
Potential profit: $878.99
User PnL: -$9.9

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.08
Potential payout: $720
Potential profit: $718.92
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$17.52

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $700
User PnL: -$34

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $71.74
Potential payout: $652.22
Potential profit: $580.48
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$25.48

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $597.2
Potential profit: $597.2
User PnL: -$4.81

No position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $590
Potential profit: $590
User PnL: -$16.37

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 20.4%
Current value: $102.2
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $397.79
Multiplier: 4.89x
User PnL: $59.7

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $6.52
Potential payout: $449.99
Potential profit: $443.47
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$2.03

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $449.99
Potential profit: $449.99
User PnL: -$14.9

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $390
Potential profit: $390
User PnL: -$39

Yes position

Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $298.42
Potential profit: $298.42
User PnL: -$14.91

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.55K

Yes position

Will Trump lower tariffs on India next?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $451.15

Yes position

Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?

Ends Dec 29, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $353.97

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 17.6%
Multiplier: 5.70x
User PnL: $84.93

Yes position

South Korean President impeached by Friday?

Ends Dec 6, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $72

Yes position

Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year?

Ends Feb 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.13

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $66.44

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $64.39

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $62.39

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?

Ends Jan 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $41.49

Yes position

Will Biden finish his term?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.21

No position

Will 'The Tortured Poets Department' win Album of the Year?

Ends Feb 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.9

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy hold 400k+ BTC before 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.58

Yes position

Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $33

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.42

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2024?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?

Ends Nov 7, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.25

Yes position

Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.4% by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.68

Yes position

Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during December FOMC Press Conference?

Ends Dec 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.7

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.08

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.48

No position

Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.4

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December?