0x2106bA2AD3136CB58B1688B9b6EE4Bf8C1c7Fa73-1772259511831

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $843.84
Potential payout: $5.11K
Potential profit: $4.27K
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$806.14

Yes position

Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $12.64
Potential payout: $2.81K
Potential profit: $2.8K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$147.35

Yes position

Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $10.32
Potential payout: $2.58K
Potential profit: $2.57K
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$39.68

Yes position

Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $8.75
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.49K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $32.12
Potential payout: $2.01K
Potential profit: $1.98K
Multiplier: 62.50x
User PnL: -$67.88

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $4.05
Potential payout: $1.62K
Potential profit: $1.62K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$15.95

Yes position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $8.17
Potential payout: $1.49K
Potential profit: $1.48K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$21.82

Yes position

Trump out as President by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $5
Potential payout: $1.43K
Potential profit: $1.42K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $13.57
Potential payout: $1.43K
Potential profit: $1.42K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$86.43

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $2.07
Potential payout: $1.38K
Potential profit: $1.38K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$7.93

Yes position

Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $3.68
Potential payout: $1.23K
Potential profit: $1.22K
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$6.32

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $39.21
Potential payout: $1.21K
Potential profit: $1.17K
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$57.9

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $317.74
Potential payout: $1.16K
Potential profit: $837.69
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$6.26

Yes position

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $9.67
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1.13K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.33

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $8.33
Potential payout: $833.33
Potential profit: $825
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: -$1.67

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $15
Potential payout: $769.23
Potential profit: $754.23
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$85

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $73.08
Potential payout: $769.23
Potential profit: $696.15
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$26.92

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $10.05
Potential payout: $717.93
Potential profit: $707.88
Multiplier: 71.43x
User PnL: -$39.95

Yes position

Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $55.16
Potential payout: $689.53
Potential profit: $634.37
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$144.84

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $20.41
Potential payout: $583.26
Potential profit: $562.85
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: $10.41

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $3.72
Potential payout: $572.08
Potential profit: $568.36
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$6.28

Yes position

Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $569.44
Potential profit: $568.58
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$9.15

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $75
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $480.56
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.83K

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $449.55

Saudi Arabia position

T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $347.14

Yes position

Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $285.06

Yes position

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 37.2%
Multiplier: 2.69x
User PnL: $277.6

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $273.46

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $251.6

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $201.52

Tatiana Pieri position

Foggia: Tatiana Pieri vs Sofia Costoulas

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $189.8

Joao Fonseca position

Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.67

Giorgia Pedone position

Foggia: Mayar Sherif vs Giorgia Pedone

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115

Up position

XRP Up or Down - March 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.5

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.35

Yes position

Will France strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $93.17

Down position

Solana Up or Down - March 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.13

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $83.55

Marin Cilic position

Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.91

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.57

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET