Polymarket Trader

George.Smiley

0x2110ba2a1e18840109482ff4ddc547baeff45850

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $5.61K
Realized PnL: $91.27K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.2K
Potential profit: $10.2K
User PnL: -$2.31K

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.8K
Potential profit: $4.8K
User PnL: -$2.93K

Yes position

Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.44K
Potential profit: $3.44K
User PnL: -$3.13K

Yes position

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $449.5
Potential payout: $3.1K
Potential profit: $2.65K
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$98.09

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.6%
Current value: $466.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.53K
Multiplier: 6.43x
User PnL: -$31.5

Yes position

Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $58.75
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.44K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$1.19K

No position

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$520

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $399.2
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.2K
Multiplier: 4.01x
User PnL: -$94.8

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.6%
Current value: $54.17
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.45K
Multiplier: 27.78x
User PnL: -$40.15

Yes position

Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.33K
Potential profit: $1.33K
User PnL: -$175.84

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 41%
Current value: $537.06
Potential payout: $1.31K
Potential profit: $772.85
Multiplier: 2.44x
User PnL: $39.3

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$166.25

Yes position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12?

Ends Dec 12, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$121.15

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 69.7%
Current value: $794
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $345.99
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $529.89

No position

Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.1K
User PnL: -$59.76

No position

Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $1.08K
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $1.63
User PnL: $9.64

Yes position

Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $17.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $982.5
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$25.5

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$70

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$24.5

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $999.99
User PnL: -$589.99

No position

Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $967.95
Potential payout: $999.95
Potential profit: $32
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $317.98

No position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $764.8
Potential payout: $980.51
Potential profit: $215.71
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $537.62

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $950
Potential profit: $950
User PnL: -$533.5

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 18, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $21.13
Potential payout: $899.18
Potential profit: $878.05
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$53.71

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.5K

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.65K

No position

Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.99K

No position

Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.34K

Yes position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.36K

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.86K

Yes position

Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.4K

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.57K

No position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.41K

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.82K

No position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.69K

No position

UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56K

No position

Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32K

Yes position

Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.25K

No position

Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $854.97

No position

Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $817.92

No position

Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $752.09

Yes position

No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $711.65

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $678.43

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $656.62

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $570

Yes position

UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $559.01

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $501.08

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $432

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026?

Yes 16% 440.25 shares
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?

Yes 7.7% 1,215.44 shares
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026?

Yes 13% 251.71 shares
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026?

Yes 8% 1,156.47 shares
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026?

Yes 5.7% 891.11 shares
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 24, 2026?

Yes 5.5% 560 shares
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 7, 2026?

No 99.5% 100 shares
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 5, 2026?

No 99.6% 400 shares
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 18, 2026?

Yes 8.9% 510.17 shares
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 11, 2026?

Yes 8% 162.42 shares
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026?

Yes 10% 282.55 shares
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026?

Yes 6.9% 884.43 shares