Polymarket Trader

BikesAreTheBikes

0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $14.26K
Realized PnL: $35.76K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 17.1%
Current value: $2.05K
Potential payout: $12.04K
Potential profit: $9.98K
Multiplier: 5.87x
User PnL: $290.04

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.96K
Potential profit: $10.96K
User PnL: -$298.45

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 85.9%
Current value: $5.19K
Potential payout: $6.05K
Potential profit: $855.45
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $323.44

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.83K
Potential profit: $4.83K
User PnL: -$120.09

No position

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 96.7%
Current value: $3.77K
Potential payout: $3.9K
Potential profit: $130.62
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $257.47

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.9
Potential payout: $3.81K
Potential profit: $3.8K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$198.4

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.87
Potential payout: $3.74K
Potential profit: $3.74K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$194.92

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 75.4%
Current value: $2.77K
Potential payout: $3.67K
Potential profit: $902.33
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $77.92

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.82
Potential payout: $3.65K
Potential profit: $3.64K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$190.05

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.72
Potential payout: $3.44K
Potential profit: $3.44K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$179.58

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.42K
Potential profit: $3.42K
User PnL: -$1.7K

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.71
Potential payout: $3.42K
Potential profit: $3.41K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$178.07

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.66
Potential payout: $3.33K
Potential profit: $3.33K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$173.54

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.64
Potential payout: $3.28K
Potential profit: $3.28K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$171.14

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.62
Potential payout: $3.24K
Potential profit: $3.24K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$169.05

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.14K
Potential profit: $3.14K
User PnL: -$84.6

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $461.87
Potential payout: $2.98K
Potential profit: $2.52K
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $44.7

No position

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.93K
Potential profit: $2.93K
User PnL: -$133.57

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.91K
Potential profit: $2.91K
User PnL: -$1.52K

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.42
Potential payout: $2.84K
Potential profit: $2.84K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$148.27

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.33
Potential payout: $2.67K
Potential profit: $2.67K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$139.1

Yes position

Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.4K
Potential profit: $2.4K
User PnL: -$614.77

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.19
Potential payout: $2.39K
Potential profit: $2.39K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$124.41

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.15K
Potential profit: $2.15K
User PnL: -$349.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.43K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $4.32K

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.62K

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 24.1%
Multiplier: 4.15x
User PnL: $1.39K

No position

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.36K

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.24K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.22K

No position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $994.2

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 14.2%
Multiplier: 7.07x
User PnL: $970.18

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $865.52

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $851.72

Yes position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $843.68

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $830.95

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $819.12

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $789.86

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $782.81

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 45%
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $764.17

No position

Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $759

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $754.56

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $656.14

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $640.92

No position

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 19.9%
Multiplier: 5.03x
User PnL: $629.74

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $622.45

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $594.96

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

No 97.9% 4,065.51 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 23.1% 46.73 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

No 38% 200 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 33% 58 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

No 46% 200 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

No 80.5% 200 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

No 34% 176 shares
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

Yes 15% 200 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

No 31% 200 shares
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Yes 34% 200 shares
Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

No 2.5% 20 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

No 45% 141.38 shares