Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $88.27
- Potential payout
- $5.35K
- Potential profit
- $5.26K
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$386.15
Polymarket Trader
qcp11
0x21847e62996173449d295bc00c5d5f427fb500df
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $258.84
- Realized PnL
- $813.99
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $533.1
- Potential profit
- $533.1
- User PnL
- -$10.92
Yes position
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $506.19
- Potential profit
- $506.19
- User PnL
- -$69.01
Yes position
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $475.34
- Potential profit
- $475.34
- User PnL
- -$21.82
Yes position
Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $377.11
- Potential profit
- $377.11
- User PnL
- -$10.71
No position
Trump kiss by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $244.19
- Potential profit
- $244.19
- User PnL
- -$18.6
Yes position
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $205.6
- Potential profit
- $205.6
- User PnL
- -$3.52
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.6%
- Current value
- $18.8
- Potential payout
- $162.75
- Potential profit
- $143.95
- Multiplier
- 8.66x
- User PnL
- $5.5
No position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $157.56
- Potential profit
- $157.56
- User PnL
- -$6.14
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $144.05
- Potential profit
- $144.05
- User PnL
- -$18.51
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $13.77
- Potential payout
- $131.12
- Potential profit
- $117.35
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$4.59
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $127.17
- Potential profit
- $127.17
- User PnL
- -$2.69
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $111.04
- Potential profit
- $111.04
- User PnL
- -$5.95
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47%
- Current value
- $48.53
- Potential payout
- $103.25
- Potential profit
- $54.72
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- $13.33
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $88
- Potential payout
- $102.92
- Potential profit
- $14.92
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $2.72
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $1.49
- Potential payout
- $102.6
- Potential profit
- $101.11
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$30.48
Yes position
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $77.71
- Potential profit
- $77.71
- User PnL
- -$6.77
Yes position
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $76.04
- Potential profit
- $76.04
- User PnL
- -$1.52
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $69.74
- Potential profit
- $69.74
- User PnL
- -$11.93
Yes position
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $64.3
- Potential profit
- $64.3
- User PnL
- -$0.7
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $64.04
- Potential profit
- $64.04
- User PnL
- -$4.09
Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.12
- Potential profit
- $58.12
- User PnL
- -$4.73
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $57.8
- Potential profit
- $57.8
- User PnL
- -$5.7
Yes position
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $46.79
- Potential profit
- $46.79
- User PnL
- -$9.63
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.26
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $106.42
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 24-30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.44
Yes position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $62.19
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.89
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.93
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.94
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.56
Yes position
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.94
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.9
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.87
Yes position
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.58
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.07
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.68
No position
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.3
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.02
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.91
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.23
No position
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.15
Yes position
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.49
No position
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Nation?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.24
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.43
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.37
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.17
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026?Yes 22% 13.71 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?No 92% 6.67 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 61% 0.61 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 61% 1.78 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 7.32 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 7.32 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 7.32 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 7.32 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 7.32 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 7.32 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 7.32 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 83% 7.32 shares