real-hero-himmel

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.53
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $1.07K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.58

No position

Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 79%
Current value: $99.05
Potential payout: $125.38
Potential profit: $26.33
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 2.2%
Current value: $2.57
Potential payout: $116.98
Potential profit: $114.4
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: -$2.46

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.37
Potential profit: $57.37
User PnL: -$29.78

No position

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 81.6%
Current value: $40.79
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $9.21
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $5.26
Potential payout: $42.09
Potential profit: $36.83
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$15.22

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 7.7%
Current value: $2.66
Potential payout: $34.52
Potential profit: $31.86
Multiplier: 12.99x
User PnL: -$3.6

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $3.48
Potential payout: $31.6
Potential profit: $28.13
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$6.52

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.62
Potential profit: $26.62
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.44
Potential profit: $23.44
User PnL: -$15.47

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.89
Potential profit: $21.89
User PnL: -$15.45

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.84
Potential profit: $21.84
User PnL: -$12.67

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21
Potential profit: $21
User PnL: -$16.41

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.41
Potential profit: $20.41
User PnL: -$11.84

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $19.43
Potential payout: $20.01
Potential profit: $0.58
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.84

Yes position

Will ByteDance have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.96
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: $0

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.41
Potential profit: $19.41
User PnL: -$13.78

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.07
Potential profit: $19.07
User PnL: -$13.81

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.47
Potential profit: $18.47
User PnL: -$11.29

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.61
Potential profit: $17.61
User PnL: -$11.57

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.56
Potential profit: $17.56
User PnL: -$11.91

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.13
Potential profit: $17.13
User PnL: -$5.14

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.1
Potential profit: $17.1
User PnL: -$9.92

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 79%
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $41.4

Yes position

Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.58

Yes position

Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $31.41

Yes position

Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.48

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $23.98

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $22.4

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 13.3%
Multiplier: 7.52x
User PnL: $19.44

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 17.1%
Multiplier: 5.85x
User PnL: $18.6

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $17.55

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.29

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.74

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.97

Yes position

Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.82

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.38

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.09

No position

Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.53

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.38

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.2

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.37

Yes position

Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.56

No position

Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.41

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET