Polymarket Trader

EVP-HalfKelly

0x2277c18fb73d4cfbd61384be80ef9339a9496604

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $6.31K
Realized PnL: $1.74K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 88.3%
Current value: $1.77K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $235
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $82.25
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $1.04K
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: -$2.8

No position

Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $649.09
Potential payout: $826.86
Potential profit: $177.77
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$78.55

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $429
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $171
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: -$51

No position

Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $63
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $537
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$63

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $159
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $441
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$45

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 81.8%
Current value: $490.5
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $109.5
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: -$8.1

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $250.21
Potential payout: $581.87
Potential profit: $331.67
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: $23.27

No position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 62%
Current value: $336.73
Potential payout: $543.55
Potential profit: $206.82
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: -$4.08

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $307.83
Potential payout: $424.59
Potential profit: $116.76
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: -$31.84

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $401.98
Potential payout: $404
Potential profit: $2.02
User PnL: $2.02

Down position

XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $317.4
Potential payout: $318.99
Potential profit: $1.6
User PnL: $0.54

No position

Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $181.54
Potential payout: $310.32
Potential profit: $128.78
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$10.86

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 18.7%
Current value: $55.39
Potential payout: $297
Potential profit: $241.61
Multiplier: 5.36x
User PnL: -$4.01

No position

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $183.01
Potential payout: $248.99
Potential profit: $65.98
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$18.67

Down position

Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $240.79
Potential payout: $242
Potential profit: $1.21
User PnL: $1.21

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 73.2%
Current value: $175.56
Potential payout: $240
Potential profit: $64.44
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: -$14.04

Yes position

Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $15.79
Potential payout: $210.57
Potential profit: $194.78
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $20.89
Potential payout: $198.97
Potential profit: $178.08
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$162.16

Yes position

Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $34.35
Potential payout: $180.77
Potential profit: $146.42
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$126.54

No position

Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 27?

Ends Jul 28, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $2.66
Potential payout: $177.54
Potential profit: $174.88
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$6.21

No position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 79.1%
Current value: $133.64
Potential payout: $169.06
Potential profit: $35.42
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$4.99

Yes position

Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $9.28
Potential payout: $168.76
Potential profit: $159.48
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$7.59

Yes position

Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $9.22
Potential payout: $153.64
Potential profit: $144.42
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$7.68

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $173.86

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.52

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.53

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.05

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.84

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.63

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.45

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.68

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.58

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.14

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.32

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.91

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.82

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.74

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.94

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.34

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.26

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.62

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.6

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

Down 99% 8.5 shares
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Down 99.9% 116.99 shares
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Down 99.9% 84.2 shares
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET

Up 99% 75 shares
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Down 99% 242 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Down 99% 404 shares
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET

Down 99% 202 shares
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

Up 99.9% 53.83 shares
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

Down 99% 121 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

Up 95.6% 13.6 shares
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET

Up 99% 45 shares
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET

Up 99% 173.05 shares