Polymarket Trader

Alex.P

0x22d6f72402bbd924b618f99eeb64781250aef8b3

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $444.47
Realized PnL: $805.87
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Mada Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $998
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.35
Potential payout: $300.01
Potential profit: $298.66
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$28.65

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $8.93
Potential payout: $231.83
Potential profit: $222.9
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$1.07

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 30%
Current value: $43.48
Potential payout: $144.93
Potential profit: $101.45
Multiplier: 3.33x
User PnL: -$1.45

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.06
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.94

Yes position

Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 44%
Current value: $44
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $56
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: -$6

No position

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 69%
Current value: $55.19
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $24.81
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: -$3.21

Yes position

Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $4.04
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $75.96
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $68.39
Potential payout: $79.99
Potential profit: $11.6
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $2.8

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.88
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.96

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $71.15
Potential profit: $71.08
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: -$49.93

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Current value: $35
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $35
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$11.2

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $53.55
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $16.45
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $1.05

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $40.63
Potential payout: $68.86
Potential profit: $28.23
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: $2.75

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?

Ends Aug 13, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $54.3
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $5.7
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.2%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $56.93
Potential profit: $55.67
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: -$28.75

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $32.2
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $7.8
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.03

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $48.9

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.5

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.67

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.8

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $36.23

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.91

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.36

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.34

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.43

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.54

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.4

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.56

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.25

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.64

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.13

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.13

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by March 7?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.82

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $27.61

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.92

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.5

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $25.45

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.48

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.29

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

No 75% 70 shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?

No 88% 60 shares
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?

Yes 83% 70 shares
Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat?

Yes 4.3% 231.83 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 50% 100 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 82% 55.56 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?

Yes 59.1% 33.83 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?

Yes 59% 33.9 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?

Yes 59% 33.9 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?

Yes 52% 38.46 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Yes 51% 39.22 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

Yes 44.9% 50 shares