Polymarket Trader

theoaga

0x230be282c238e98c0154df33514f990e68997409

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $12.7K
Realized PnL: -$1.94K
Win rate: 63.6%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 22
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $1.15K
Potential payout: $18.5K
Potential profit: $17.35K
Multiplier: 16.13x
User PnL: -$147.15

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $1.05K
Potential payout: $18.5K
Potential profit: $17.45K
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$545.75

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $730.75
Potential payout: $18.5K
Potential profit: $17.77K
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$259.13

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 23.3%
Current value: $4.3K
Potential payout: $18.5K
Potential profit: $14.2K
Multiplier: 4.30x
User PnL: $2.31K

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.1%
Current value: $2.04K
Potential payout: $18.5K
Potential profit: $16.46K
Multiplier: 9.05x
User PnL: -$793.96

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $706.97
Potential payout: $14K
Potential profit: $13.29K
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: $270.15

Yes position

Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $184.95
Potential payout: $13.7K
Potential profit: $13.52K
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$61.65

Yes position

Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.7K
Potential profit: $13.7K
User PnL: -$137

Yes position

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $47.95
Potential payout: $13.7K
Potential profit: $13.65K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$125.98

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 10.3%
Current value: $1.11K
Potential payout: $10.8K
Potential profit: $9.69K
Multiplier: 9.76x
User PnL: -$269.17

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 20.9%
Current value: $1.11K
Potential payout: $5.3K
Potential profit: $4.19K
Multiplier: 4.80x
User PnL: $542.41

Yes position

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $101.6
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $3.9K
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$6.4

No position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $4K
User PnL: -$564.98

Yes position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $19.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $980.5
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$9.5

No position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $154.89
Potential payout: $199.98
Potential profit: $45.1
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $10.3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175.77

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $145.74

Yes position

Will Lucas Paquetá be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.3

Yes position

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.16

Yes position

Will Leo Pereira be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.56

Yes position

Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: $21.83

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.68

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.08

Yes position

Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.5

No position

Maduro out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.72

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $5.5

Yes position

Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Will Igor Thiago be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10.04

Yes position

Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$12.96

Yes position

Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.9%
Multiplier: 34.48x
User PnL: -$16.82

Yes position

Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$46.57

No position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$210.09

Yes position

Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$266.84

No position

No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.95K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 2.7% 4,000 shares
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 2.9% 1,000 shares
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

Yes 85.5% 50 shares
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

Yes 89% 67.17 shares
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 2.3% 372.59 shares
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Yes 5.8% 82.55 shares
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

Yes 85.8% 150 shares
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 1.9% 1,000 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

Yes 99% 450 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

Yes 93.3% 57 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 68% 99.99 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 67% 100 shares