Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.2%
- Current value
- $5.06
- Potential payout
- $25.13
- Potential profit
- $20.06
- Multiplier
- 4.96x
- User PnL
- $0.06
Polymarket Trader
Ivan-834
0x23483f023a63e94f716ebf2314c58fdfd7f7ca69
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $16.48
- Realized PnL
- -$33.34
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $1.77
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $19.06
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$8.23
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.82
- Potential profit
- $12.82
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.07
- Potential profit
- $12.07
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 52%
- Current value
- $4.08
- Potential payout
- $7.84
- Potential profit
- $3.76
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- $0.08
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $5.57
- Potential payout
- $6.02
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.57
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.2
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.26
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.13
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.11
No position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.9
No position
Will Russia capture Udachne before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.2
No position
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.89
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.17
No position
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.69
No position
New pandemic in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.01
No position
New pandemic before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1
Yes position
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?
Ends Dec 10, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
DeepSeek R2 released before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the next James Bond be British?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Bitcoin more valuable than any company in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will John Mulaney actually fight children?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Ends Jun 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Yes 51% 7.84 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 19.9% 25.13 shares
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 39% 12.82 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No 83% 6.02 shares
- Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?No 62.9% 15.9 shares
- Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?No 72% 13.89 shares
- Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?Yes 16.6% 12.07 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes 39% 10.26 shares
- Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?No 18% 27.78 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes 45% 11.11 shares
- Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?Yes 48% 20.83 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes 55.8% 7.17 shares