Polymarket Trader

0x237597365C4cA9498cc590a29C2cdc3C74539Ba3-1771686017044

0x237597365c4ca9498cc590a29c2cdc3c74539ba3

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $105.24
Realized PnL: $38.37
Win rate: 62.5%
Open positions: 9
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $75
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $25
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $25

Yes position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $18.41
Potential payout: $24.39
Potential profit: $5.98
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $8.41

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $11.82
Potential payout: $13.51
Potential profit: $1.69
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $1.82

No position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.84
Potential profit: $11.84
User PnL: -$5

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.59
Potential profit: $10.59
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.42
Potential profit: $10.42
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.47
Potential profit: $8.47
User PnL: -$5

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.81
Potential profit: $7.81
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.02
Potential profit: $6.02
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.17

No position

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.93

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.78

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.82

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.82

Yes position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.68

Yes position

Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-01?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.33

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.3

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $2

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.56

No position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.29

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: $0.26

No position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.61

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

No 50% 100 shares
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?

Yes 91% 5.49 shares
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?

Yes 64% 7.81 shares
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?

Yes 50% 10 shares
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?

Yes 51% 9.8 shares
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?

Yes 48% 10.42 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?

Yes 93.9% 5.32 shares
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?

Yes 83% 6.02 shares
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Yes 59% 8.47 shares
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?

Yes 64% 7.81 shares
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Yes 39% 9.8 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

No 64% 7.81 shares