Slon1k

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $774.62
Potential profit: $774.62
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $369.23
Potential profit: $369.23
User PnL: -$48

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $4.75
Potential payout: $111.7
Potential profit: $106.96
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: -$6.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $67.19
Potential profit: $66.22
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$1.71

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.33
Potential profit: $56.33
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $52.63
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.4
Potential profit: $52.4
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $9.22
Potential payout: $39.25
Potential profit: $30.03
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $6.46
Potential payout: $39.17
Potential profit: $32.7
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $2.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $9.65
Potential payout: $33.88
Potential profit: $24.23
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $1.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $7.76
Potential payout: $33.72
Potential profit: $25.97
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $2.39

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $12.86
Potential payout: $31.76
Potential profit: $18.9
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $1.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $6.28
Potential payout: $31.41
Potential profit: $25.13
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: $0.94

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 31%
Current value: $9.56
Potential payout: $30.84
Potential profit: $21.28
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: -$0.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $3.7
Potential payout: $30.8
Potential profit: $27.1
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?

Ends Aug 25, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $24.58
Potential payout: $26.86
Potential profit: $2.28
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.19

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 6?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $5.5
Potential payout: $25.59
Potential profit: $20.09
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$3.2

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $5.75
Potential payout: $25.55
Potential profit: $19.8
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 6?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $0.71
Potential payout: $25.5
Potential profit: $24.79
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: -$2.35

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $4.58
Potential payout: $24.75
Potential profit: $20.18
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 7?

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $9.28
Potential payout: $24.11
Potential profit: $14.83
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $20
Potential payout: $23.26
Potential profit: $3.26
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.46

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.17

Yes position

Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.27

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8

Yes position

Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.84

Yes position

Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.66

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2

Yes position

Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Implied probability: 97.8%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $3.17

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.8

No position

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.97

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.59

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

Will Ryan Fazio win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Aug 11, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: -$0.14

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET