No position
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13
Polymarket Trader
arloharley7813
0x240bec93df966df5851c70659587bdac9b5c015f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $0
- Realized PnL
- $2.99
- Win rate
- 45.8%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Latest Resolved Positions
No open position details returned
This trader has an open-position count, but open position cards are not available yet. Showing their latest closed positions instead.
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
Yes position
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.17
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.22
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
Yes position
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Vince Williams Jr.: Rebounds O/U 3.5
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 99%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.7% 27 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?No 89.9% 32 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 95.5% 22 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No 95.5% 22 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 58% 30 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 58% 55 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No 62% 35 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No 60% 35 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No 70.9% 44 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No 70.9% 44 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?No 91% 31 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?No 98% 29 shares