Polymarket Trader

TherealMrblue

0x24321d12a64cb847650e306edfe817cfd1243ef5

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $481.74
Realized PnL: $8.16K
Win rate: 69.2%
Open positions: 6
Closed positions: 13
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $196.11
Potential payout: $17.05K
Potential profit: $16.86K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$53.87

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $10K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $229.84
Potential payout: $1.84K
Potential profit: $1.61K
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$130.16

Yes position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $55.79
Potential payout: $1.58K
Potential profit: $1.52K
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: -$444.21

Yes position

Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $434.78
Potential profit: $434.78
User PnL: -$100

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.3
Potential profit: $19.3
User PnL: -$9.07

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.47K

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.38K

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $992.42

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $685.72

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $174.87

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.03

Yes position

Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $59.08

Yes position

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $37.91

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$64.65

Yes position

Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.6K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Yes 0.4% 11,574.52 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

No 0.1% 10,000 shares
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?

Yes 23% 434.78 shares
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Yes 31.7% 1,576.06 shares
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Yes 99.8% 352.73 shares
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Yes 56.7% 352.73 shares
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Yes 3.7% 5,478.2 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 19.6% 1,838.71 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Down 99% 25.25 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Down 98% 5.1 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

Up 1% 2,500 shares
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?

No 83% 1,428.57 shares