No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $278.19
- Potential payout
- $325.37
- Potential profit
- $47.18
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $38.67
Polymarket Trader
eq44234d
0x244d89e9e053b477dfb6a6cbb17f74345d479bf4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.76K
- Realized PnL
- $885.73
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $3.38
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $246.63
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$1.63
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $228.78
- Potential payout
- $229.7
- Potential profit
- $0.92
- User PnL
- $26.08
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $219.45
- Potential payout
- $220
- Potential profit
- $0.55
- User PnL
- $17.05
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $197.72
- Potential payout
- $199.01
- Potential profit
- $1.29
- User PnL
- $24.75
Yes position
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $4.16
- Potential payout
- $185
- Potential profit
- $180.84
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $5.86
- Potential payout
- $135
- Potential profit
- $129.14
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- $0.86
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $108.55
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $21.45
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $7.15
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.8%
- Current value
- $108.09
- Potential payout
- $129.07
- Potential profit
- $20.97
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $47.25
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $119.58
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $0.42
- User PnL
- $16.62
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $115.86
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $4.14
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $11.46
Yes position
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $1.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $98.55
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $3.85
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $96.15
- Multiplier
- 25.97x
- User PnL
- $0.55
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $5.35
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $94.65
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- $0.35
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $90
- User PnL
- -$1.53
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $86.9
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $3.11
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $13.99
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Current value
- $3.29
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $86.72
- Multiplier
- 27.40x
- User PnL
- -$1.76
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $87.99
- Potential payout
- $88.57
- Potential profit
- $0.58
- User PnL
- $21.64
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $79.55
- Potential payout
- $79.99
- Potential profit
- $0.44
- User PnL
- $4.36
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $78.39
- Potential profit
- $78.39
- User PnL
- -$30.3
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $47.63
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $27.38
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $1.13
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $1.93
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $68.08
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- -$9.98
No position
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 39.1%
- Current value
- $19.55
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $30.45
- Multiplier
- 2.56x
- User PnL
- $2.9
No position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $29.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $20.25
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $13.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.03
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.28
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.03
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.02
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.92
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.24
KT Rolster Challengers position
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.96
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.2
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.66
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $33.12
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.81
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.8
No position
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.72
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.27
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.55
Yes position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.32
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.46
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.58
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.43
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.8
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.07
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.69
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.78
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 1.8% 50 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 61% 40 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes 94.7% 70 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 93.6% 50 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 21% 50 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?No 99.7% 199.49 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 94% 79.99 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 37% 56.61 shares
- Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?Yes 14% 10 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 18% 50 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 88% 140 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?No 27% 33 shares