Polymarket Trader

NeblinaTrader

0x245371a9935405aa5d2abab496b7e79d30516b0c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $911.57
Realized PnL: $209.04
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $469.03
Potential payout: $469.73
Potential profit: $0.7
User PnL: $19.02

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $233.48
Potential payout: $237.63
Potential profit: $4.16
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $12.48

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $77.35
Potential payout: $78.6
Potential profit: $1.26
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $13.41

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $71.99
Potential payout: $72.76
Potential profit: $0.76
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $8.69

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $35.68
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $9.77
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $10.68

Yes position

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $18.76
Potential payout: $36.43
Potential profit: $17.67
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $8.56

Yes position

Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.65
Potential profit: $23.65
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.66
Potential profit: $12.66
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.95
Potential profit: $5.95
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $5.88
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $5.88
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $5.88
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $5.88
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $5.88
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.81
Potential profit: $5.81
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.68
Potential profit: $5.68
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $5.28
Potential payout: $5.68
Potential profit: $0.4
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.28

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.68
Potential profit: $5.68
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.62
Potential profit: $5.62
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.62
Potential profit: $5.62
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.62
Potential profit: $5.62
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.57
Potential profit: $5.57
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $5.56
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $5.56
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.2

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.22

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.03

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.92

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.65

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.57

Yes position

Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: $13.52

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.46

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.53

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $10.62

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.15

Yes position

Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 18%
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $7.44

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.08

No position

Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.05

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.76

No position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.29

No position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.64

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.82

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.36

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.28

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 10?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02

No position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.81

No position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.81

No position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 3?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.81

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 25?

No 93% 5.38 shares
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 25?

No 91.7% 5.45 shares
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 25?

No 92.3% 5.42 shares
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25?

No 93% 5.38 shares
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 25?

No 88% 5.68 shares
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25?

No 91.7% 5.45 shares
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 25?

No 95.1% 5.26 shares
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 25?

No 93% 5.38 shares
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25?

No 91% 5.49 shares
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25?

No 90% 5.56 shares
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25?

No 95% 5.26 shares
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25?

No 95.8% 5.22 shares