Polymarket Trader

0x257492f3FfA9Df584Bfb0ec93d8AA0a32135144b-1776395184666

0x257492f3ffa9df584bfb0ec93d8aa0a32135144b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.16K
Realized PnL: $224.77
Win rate: 65%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 20
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $80.01
Potential payout: $1.78K
Potential profit: $1.7K
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$94.99

Yes position

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $35.41
Potential payout: $1.57K
Potential profit: $1.54K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$14.59

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $178.98
Potential payout: $300.81
Potential profit: $121.83
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $8.98

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.97
Potential payout: $281.7
Potential profit: $279.73
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$18.03

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $181.56
Potential payout: $194.18
Potential profit: $12.62
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $61.56

Yes position

Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $153.48
Potential payout: $190.66
Potential profit: $37.18
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$3.74

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 24.9%
Current value: $45.77
Potential payout: $183.82
Potential profit: $138.05
Multiplier: 4.02x
User PnL: -$4.23

Yes position

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $3.53
Potential payout: $172.41
Potential profit: $168.88
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$1.47

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $70.3
Potential payout: $169.39
Potential profit: $99.09
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$16.09

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $127.72
Potential payout: $162.7
Potential profit: $34.98
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $27.72

No position

Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $50.29
Potential payout: $130.64
Potential profit: $80.34
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$33.7

Yes position

Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $2.24
Potential payout: $128.21
Potential profit: $125.96
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$2.76

No position

Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $101.78
Potential payout: $120.45
Potential profit: $18.67
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $1.78

Yes position

Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $12.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $87.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$7.5

No position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 85.8%
Current value: $51.66
Potential payout: $60.24
Potential profit: $8.58
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $1.66

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $57.53
Potential payout: $60.24
Potential profit: $2.71
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $7.53

No position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $8.08
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $8.58
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$1.92

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.95

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.69

No position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $65.39

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.72

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.72

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.95

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $21.05

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.93

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $9.22

Yes position

Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?

Ends Jun 6, 2027

Implied probability: 80.8%
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $2.92

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.44

Yes position

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: $0.46

No position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$12

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$12.6

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$13.6

Yes position

Will "Michael" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$37.84

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$51.46

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$124.17

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 5% 400 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

No 57% 175.44 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

No 92% 131.57 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 81% 24.69 shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 6.8% 438.23 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

No 63% 47.62 shares
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Yes 7.1% 281.69 shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 27.2% 183.82 shares
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 83% 60.24 shares
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 2.9% 172.41 shares
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 3.9% 128.21 shares
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Yes 10% 80 shares