Yes position
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $699.66
- Potential payout
- $20.58K
- Potential profit
- $19.88K
- Multiplier
- 29.41x
- User PnL
- -$131.6
Polymarket Trader
nicolemayer
0x27175ee6c528bd38b7a6ecca62c6403f6a7966f4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $713.88
- Realized PnL
- -$111.24
- Win rate
- 46.7%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 15
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.06K
- Potential profit
- $3.06K
- User PnL
- -$130.36
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $949
- Potential profit
- $949
- User PnL
- -$68.92
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $599.99
- Potential profit
- $599.99
- User PnL
- -$32.45
Yes position
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $2.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $497.75
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$2.75
Yes position
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $6.19
- Potential payout
- $476.25
- Potential profit
- $470.06
- Multiplier
- 76.92x
- User PnL
- $3.19
Yes position
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $2.04
- Potential payout
- $454.28
- Potential profit
- $452.23
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $1.33
- Potential payout
- $379.91
- Potential profit
- $378.58
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$2.28
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $218
- Potential profit
- $218
- User PnL
- -$6.1
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $190.01
- Potential profit
- $190.01
- User PnL
- -$1.72
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $165
- Potential profit
- $165
- User PnL
- -$18.3
Yes position
Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$4.05
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- -$10.19
Yes position
Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $148.72
- Potential profit
- $148.72
- User PnL
- -$7.14
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $113.77
- Potential profit
- $113.77
- User PnL
- -$25.13
Yes position
Iran leadership change by March 13?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $2.41
- Potential payout
- $37
- Potential profit
- $34.6
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$2.78
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$6
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$4.5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.56
- Potential profit
- $9.56
- User PnL
- -$3.67
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.47
- Potential profit
- $9.47
- User PnL
- -$2.49
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $206.56
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.48
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.32
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.15
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.75
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.96
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.7
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.17
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.6
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.66
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$19.4
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$147.54
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$164.28
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes 14% 37 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 4.2% 8 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 4.2% 52 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 4.1% 15 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 4.9% 411 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 5% 174 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 5.1% 95 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 5% 212 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 5.1% 190 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 5.2% 126 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 5.7% 274 shares
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes 4% 11 shares