Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $41.11
- Potential payout
- $947.19
- Potential profit
- $906.08
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- -$2.98
Polymarket Trader
nilestrades
0x27214fd786225d2356b3201808efb3451f8ecf8a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $304.35
- Realized PnL
- $431.64
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.24
- Potential payout
- $619.03
- Potential profit
- $617.79
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.99
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $38.13
- Potential payout
- $476.6
- Potential profit
- $438.47
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$43.06
Yes position
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $4.2
- Potential payout
- $400.03
- Potential profit
- $395.83
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$0.46
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $8.22
- Potential payout
- $288.44
- Potential profit
- $280.22
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.35
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.41
- Potential payout
- $270
- Potential profit
- $269.6
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.68
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.1%
- Current value
- $37.64
- Potential payout
- $250.13
- Potential profit
- $212.49
- Multiplier
- 6.64x
- User PnL
- -$0.97
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $3.05
- Potential payout
- $225.87
- Potential profit
- $222.82
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$6.48
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $10.67
- Potential payout
- $203.31
- Potential profit
- $192.64
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $2.77
- Potential payout
- $184.48
- Potential profit
- $181.71
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $1.14
- Potential payout
- $152.63
- Potential profit
- $151.48
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$8.71
Yes position
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 25%
- Current value
- $28.3
- Potential payout
- $113.2
- Potential profit
- $84.9
- Multiplier
- 4.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.02
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.92
- Potential payout
- $108.7
- Potential profit
- $107.77
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$2.45
Yes position
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $4.82
- Potential payout
- $107.06
- Potential profit
- $102.24
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.33
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.4%
- Current value
- $4.07
- Potential payout
- $92.6
- Potential profit
- $88.52
- Multiplier
- 22.73x
- User PnL
- $0.47
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $41.3
- Potential payout
- $90.77
- Potential profit
- $49.47
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.76
Yes position
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.24
- Potential payout
- $78.36
- Potential profit
- $78.12
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.31
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $3.38
- Potential payout
- $63.18
- Potential profit
- $59.8
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $1.28
- Potential payout
- $62.41
- Potential profit
- $61.13
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- -$0.41
Yes position
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $61.6
- Potential profit
- $61.51
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.34
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $58.41
- Potential payout
- $59.12
- Potential profit
- $0.71
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $16.46
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $5.89
- Potential payout
- $56.05
- Potential profit
- $50.16
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.39
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $5.26
- Potential payout
- $55.32
- Potential profit
- $50.06
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.76
Yes position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Current value
- $1.82
- Potential payout
- $55.11
- Potential profit
- $53.29
- Multiplier
- 30.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.55
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.7
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.74
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.79
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.65
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.06
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.89
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.2
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.95
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.81
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.51
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.4
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.11
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
Ends Apr 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.6
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Ends Apr 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes 46% 2.3 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?Yes 58% 4.07 shares
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 2.9% 45.86 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?Yes 2.7% 62.22 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?Yes 5.1% 70.2 shares
- Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?Yes 99% 1.25 shares
- Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?Yes 97% 2.75 shares
- Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?Yes 82% 4.05 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes 46% 10.6 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 2.6% 100.38 shares
- Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 95.5% 4.4 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 3% 82.33 shares