Polymarket Trader

PerpGremlin-

0x2743bac12d11ca86763195e218d58cf48962872c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $89.68
Realized PnL: $226.55
Win rate: 54.2%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $466.54
Potential profit: $466.54
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $444.44
Potential profit: $444.44
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $439.49
Potential profit: $439.49
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $191
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Trump sue Powell by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $1.76
Potential payout: $100.36
Potential profit: $98.61
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$18.24

Yes position

Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $3.25
Potential payout: $94.34
Potential profit: $91.08
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$6.75

Yes position

Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $58.33
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $25
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: $38.33

Yes position

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 4.4%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $54.05
Potential profit: $51.68
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: -$17.62

Yes position

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 48%
Current value: $14.95
Potential payout: $31.15
Potential profit: $16.2
Multiplier: 2.08x
User PnL: -$5.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Ethereum above $2,700 on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.6

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down on January 7?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $102K on June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $28.56

Yes position

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.04

Yes position

Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $21.33

Up position

Solana Up or Down on January 8?

Ends Jan 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.96

Yes position

LA curfew enacted by Friday?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on January 7?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.64

Down position

Solana Up or Down on January 7?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.26

Yes position

Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.57

Yes position

Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.79

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down in Q2?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.59

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.22

Yes position

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will Trump declare martial law in LA by Friday?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Gavin Newsom arrested by Friday?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Solana above $140 on July 4?

Ends Jul 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

XRP above $2.10 on July 4?

Ends Jul 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Joey Chestnut win Nathan's Famous Hot Dog 2025?

Ends Jul 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 3?

Ends Jul 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Bitcoin all time high before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Joey Chestnut eat 70+ Hot Dogs?

Ends Jul 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy be forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?

Yes 2% 1,000 shares
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 15?

Yes 0.3% 3,077.2 shares
Solana Up or Down on January 8?

Up 99.9% 40 shares
Ethereum Up or Down on January 8?

Up 27% 74.07 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 8?

Up 26% 76.92 shares
Solana Up or Down on January 8?

Up 50% 40 shares
Solana Up or Down on January 7?

Down 43% 23.26 shares
Ethereum Up or Down on January 7?

Down 40% 50 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 7?

Down 39% 25.64 shares
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Yes 19.9% 100.36 shares
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

Yes 64.2% 31.15 shares
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?

Yes 4.5% 444.44 shares