Milin-dc

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $330.82
Potential payout: $447.06
Potential profit: $116.23
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: -$0.22

No position

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $289.36
Potential payout: $300.01
Potential profit: $10.65
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $5.11

No position

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $267.01
Potential payout: $300.01
Potential profit: $33
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.43

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 95.2%
Current value: $285.45
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $14.55
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.4

No position

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.7%
Current value: $283.93
Potential payout: $299.98
Potential profit: $16.05
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $10.2

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $203.73
Potential payout: $250.01
Potential profit: $46.28
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $1.38

No position

Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $240.13
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $9.88
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $7.7

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $236.25
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $13.75
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $34.1

Yes position

Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Implied probability: 4.4%
Current value: $11
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $239
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: -$21.23

No position

Will Mexico go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $49
Potential payout: $200.01
Potential profit: $151.01
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $7.29

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $83
Potential payout: $200.01
Potential profit: $117
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$5.4

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $78
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $122
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: $14.29

No position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $199.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $0.7
User PnL: $2.24

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $173
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $27
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $8.19

No position

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $187
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $13
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $3.1

No position

Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $149
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $51
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $6

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $198.7
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $1.3
User PnL: $5.8

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $187
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $13
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $12.77

No position

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $138.01
Potential payout: $150.01
Potential profit: $12
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $11.39

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $54.75
Potential payout: $150.01
Potential profit: $95.25
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $0.75

No position

Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $135
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $15
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $7.57

No position

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Implied probability: 86.2%
Current value: $129.3
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $20.7
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.85

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $122.79
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $7.22
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$0.82

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $108.6
Potential payout: $120
Potential profit: $11.4
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $6.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $176.9

Yes position

Will the DHS shutdown end between April 27-May 3 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.3

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of April 27 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.19

Yes position

Chirayu Rana divorced?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $73.61

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.55

Yes position

Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.31

Yes position

Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 97%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $69.04

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 17?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.07

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.22

No position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $83 Week of April 20 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.82

Down position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 28?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.49

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.53

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $52.7

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.21

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $47.19

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of April 27 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.08

Yes position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $46.2

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $45.73

Yes position

Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $43.85

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.75

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?