hoshigaki.kisame

Implied probability: 23.7%
Current value: $29.56
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $95.44
Multiplier: 4.23x
User PnL: $11.91

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $13.06
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $111.94
Multiplier: 9.57x
User PnL: -$4.04

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $7.06
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $117.94
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$4.91

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.9%
Current value: $13.56
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $111.44
Multiplier: 9.22x
User PnL: -$6.59

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $7.06
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $117.94
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$2.25

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $5.31
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $119.69
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $4.94
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $120.06
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$2.4

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $6.33
Potential payout: $110.02
Potential profit: $103.69
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$5.62

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $4.72
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $105.28
Multiplier: 23.31x
User PnL: -$5.71

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $2.7
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $107.31
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$13.02

Yes position

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $84.15
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $25.85
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $35.85

Yes position

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $10.97
Potential payout: $105
Potential profit: $94.03
Multiplier: 9.57x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $13.65
Potential payout: $105
Potential profit: $91.35
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $47.25
Potential payout: $105
Potential profit: $57.75
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: -$8.2

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $20.37
Potential payout: $105
Potential profit: $84.63
Multiplier: 5.15x
User PnL: $9.47

Yes position

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Implied probability: 56.6%
Current value: $56.55
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $43.45
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $15.6

Yes position

Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $99.75
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$8.95

Yes position

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $17
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $83
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$20.86

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $97.69
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $2.3
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $44.04

Yes position

Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.84
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$17.05

Yes position

Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.84
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$6.85

Yes position

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 20.6%
Current value: $16.44
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $63.56
Multiplier: 4.87x
User PnL: -$7.56

Yes position

Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $5.4
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $74.6
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: -$2.44

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $13.2
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $66.8
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $3.6

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.4

Yes position

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.8

Yes position

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.15

Yes position

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.11

Yes position

Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40

Yes position

Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32

Yes position

Will "Sentimental Value" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.6

Yes position

Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.4

Yes position

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $14.8

Yes position

Will "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.52

Yes position

Will Morocco win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.78

Yes position

Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.15

Yes position

Will Senegal win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?

Ends Jan 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.16

Yes position

Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.56

Yes position

Will a team from England be the 2026 Champions League winner?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.62

Yes position

Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.81

Yes position

No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$1.43

Yes position

Will Sinners win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.56

Yes position

Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s French Open?

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.99

Yes position

Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.05

Yes position

Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Implied probability: 1%
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$2.12

Yes position

Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?