Polymarket Trader

Saint-domesday

0x279bc54fba66ea74eef17938d3ae53f27c10e05b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $221.76
Realized PnL: -$135.08
Win rate: 41.7%
Open positions: 21
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $54.97
Potential payout: $845.75
Potential profit: $790.77
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$39.63

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$7.98

No position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $233.33
Potential profit: $233.33
User PnL: -$90

Up position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $220.87
Potential profit: $220.87
User PnL: -$61.5

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1.92
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $164.75
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$7.08

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $77.18
Potential payout: $162.49
Potential profit: $85.31
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $50.18

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $140.97
Potential profit: $140.97
User PnL: -$63.89

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $5.53
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $134.47
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: -$9.47

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.3%
Current value: $22.53
Potential payout: $123.46
Potential profit: $100.93
Multiplier: 5.48x
User PnL: $2.53

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $7.7
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $102.3
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$8.8

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $31.95
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $58.05
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$12.65

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70.67
Potential profit: $70.67
User PnL: -$4.1

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $4.33
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $62.33
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$5.67

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $6.07
Potential payout: $63.87
Potential profit: $57.8
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$3.51

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $4.79
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $36.88
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $4.78
Potential payout: $29.88
Potential profit: $25.1
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.23
Potential profit: $19.23
User PnL: -$5

Down position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $10.53
User PnL: -$1

Down position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.13
Potential profit: $3.13
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.1

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.03

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.75

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.95

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.52

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.2

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 58%
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: -$0.6

Yes position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$5.28

Yes position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.56

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.66

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.88

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$7.06

Yes position

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$8.82

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$12

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$24.13

No position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$26.12

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$103.14

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$127.54

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Yes 3% 66.67 shares
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Yes 9% 200 shares
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Yes 12% 100 shares
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Yes 9% 100 shares
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Yes 15% 40 shares
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Yes 16.7% 29.88 shares
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Yes 7% 100 shares
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Yes 12.8% 233.69 shares
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 98.4% 40 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Yes 3.5% 244.16 shares
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Yes 5.8% 70 shares
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 84.6% 40 shares