No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.33K
- Potential profit
- $33.33K
- User PnL
- -$100
Polymarket Trader
0x2814D522137052b40427447288BcD67fB6375596-1774971492367
0x2814d522137052b40427447288bcd67fb6375596
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.12K
- Realized PnL
- $2.36K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.5K
- Potential profit
- $12.5K
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.6K
- Potential profit
- $6.6K
- User PnL
- -$120
Yes position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.59K
- Potential profit
- $4.59K
- User PnL
- -$500
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.09K
- Potential profit
- $4.09K
- User PnL
- -$1.56K
Yes position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $393.52
- Potential payout
- $3.94K
- Potential profit
- $3.54K
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- -$64.96
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.58K
- Potential profit
- $2.58K
- User PnL
- -$350
Yes position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.47K
- Potential profit
- $2.47K
- User PnL
- -$500
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.29K
- Potential profit
- $2.29K
- User PnL
- -$110
Yes position
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $135.42
- Potential payout
- $2.08K
- Potential profit
- $1.95K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$114.58
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.85K
- Potential profit
- $1.85K
- User PnL
- -$500
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jun 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $208.49
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.46K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$41.51
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.52K
- Potential profit
- $1.52K
- User PnL
- -$250
Yes position
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- User PnL
- -$49.42
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $1.14K
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $2.78
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$97.22
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.6%
- Current value
- $68.23
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $973.44
- Multiplier
- 15.27x
- User PnL
- -$31.77
Yes position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- User PnL
- -$170
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $988.01
- Potential profit
- $988.01
- User PnL
- -$13.1
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $692
- Potential profit
- $692
- User PnL
- -$69
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $689.19
- Potential profit
- $689.19
- User PnL
- -$260
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $102.92
- Potential payout
- $623.78
- Potential profit
- $520.85
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$247.08
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28%
- Current value
- $169.2
- Potential payout
- $604.29
- Potential profit
- $435.09
- Multiplier
- 3.57x
- User PnL
- -$80.8
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $43.18
- Potential payout
- $454.55
- Potential profit
- $411.36
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$56.82
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72K
Yes position
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $186.75
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $106.97
Yes position
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5?
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100.16
N
No position
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
No position
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.8
No position
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
No position
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $21.3
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
No position
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.64
No position
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.05
No position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.86
No position
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.38
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.31
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.52
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.5
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.5
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 5?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
No position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.47
No position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.3
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.94
No position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?No 99% 60 shares
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 8.4% 100 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17?No 20% 20 shares
- Will Warsh say "Dual Mandate" during June Press Conference?No 28% 19.98 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17?No 37% 20 shares
- Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 1.4% 100 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?No 23% 50 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17?No 99.9% 27.6 shares
- Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 43% 20 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17?No 36% 50 shares
- Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?No 84% 5 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?No 45% 50 shares