Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $540.32
- Potential payout
- $3.38K
- Potential profit
- $2.84K
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- -$6.8
Polymarket Trader
mobydick
0x28400bc9983b612db7eaea83e313ca1d1bc88cff
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $540.32
- Realized PnL
- $153.21
- Win rate
- 54.2%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $69
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.37
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $46.71
Yes position
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $43.74
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $35.84
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.6
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.58
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.6
No position
Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.94
No position
Will Iran strike Kuwait in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.73
No position
Will Iran strike Bahrain in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.21
No position
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.6%
- Multiplier
- 4.87x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
No position
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.99
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 3?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.29
No position
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.48
No position
Will Iran strike Iraq in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11.2
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$21.37
Yes position
US military action against Iran by Friday?
Ends Jun 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$27.59
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$32.73
Yes position
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$43.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 17% 680 shares
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?No 9% 5 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 16% 2,697.02 shares
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?No 9% 5 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Yes 6% 7,580 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No 90% 260 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Yes 8% 910 shares
- Iran leadership change by March 31?Yes 5% 1,400 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes 36% 580 shares
- Iran leadership change by March 31?Yes 11% 1,400 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?No 85% 179.33 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Yes 13% 1,700 shares