Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $599.35
- Potential payout
- $599.65
- Potential profit
- $0.3
- User PnL
- $269.78
Polymarket Trader
simulacrum3
0x2843d543c60a54106f572ab74f0e2e04f293b3d2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.13K
- Realized PnL
- $8.18K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.2%
- Current value
- $175.87
- Potential payout
- $500.35
- Potential profit
- $324.48
- Multiplier
- 2.84x
- User PnL
- -$124.72
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $139.19
- Potential payout
- $488.57
- Potential profit
- $349.38
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$73.89
Yes position
US bank failure by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $38.95
- Potential payout
- $409.99
- Potential profit
- $371.05
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $3.93
Yes position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $178.54
- Potential payout
- $401.21
- Potential profit
- $222.67
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$101.23
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.8%
- Current value
- $83
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $317
- Multiplier
- 4.82x
- User PnL
- -$19.2
No position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $234.8
- Potential payout
- $378.7
- Potential profit
- $143.91
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- $7.47
No position
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 61%
- Current value
- $225.72
- Potential payout
- $370.03
- Potential profit
- $144.31
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- -$7.11
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $283.91
- Potential payout
- $354.89
- Potential profit
- $70.98
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $12.72
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $50.54
- Potential payout
- $336.92
- Potential profit
- $286.38
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$78.74
Yes position
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51%
- Current value
- $154.21
- Potential payout
- $302.38
- Potential profit
- $148.17
- Multiplier
- 1.96x
- User PnL
- -$59.88
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 49%
- Current value
- $147
- Potential payout
- $300.01
- Potential profit
- $153
- Multiplier
- 2.04x
- User PnL
- -$1.25
No position
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $44.99
- Potential payout
- $299.96
- Potential profit
- $254.97
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $31.48
- Potential payout
- $299.83
- Potential profit
- $268.35
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$70.14
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $21.54
- Potential payout
- $226.76
- Potential profit
- $205.22
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$5.41
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $29.86
- Potential payout
- $221.22
- Potential profit
- $191.35
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$3.67
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $214.2
- Potential payout
- $220.6
- Potential profit
- $6.4
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $183.24
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $92.68
- Potential payout
- $218.07
- Potential profit
- $125.39
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $8.12
Yes position
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $72.12
- Potential payout
- $215.27
- Potential profit
- $143.15
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$51.52
Yes position
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52%
- Current value
- $109.2
- Potential payout
- $210
- Potential profit
- $100.8
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- -$17.8
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $163.8
- Potential payout
- $210
- Potential profit
- $46.2
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- -$8.4
Yes position
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $3.19
- Potential payout
- $205.83
- Potential profit
- $202.64
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$65.38
Yes position
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $24.56
- Potential payout
- $204.64
- Potential profit
- $180.08
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- -$32.88
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $15
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $185
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$40
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $641.62
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $587.5
Yes position
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $564.6
Yes position
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $496.25
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $484.95
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $364
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $362.2
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $362
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $349.18
No position
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $340.78
Yes position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $320.26
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $319.5
Yes position
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $297.18
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $280.44
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $255.47
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $254.63
Yes position
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $251.57
Yes position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $246.48
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $243.23
Yes position
Will Microstrategy's mNAV dip to 1.00 by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $237.5
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $233.62
Yes position
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June 23?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $231.07
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $229.5
Yes position
Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $221.9
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 80% 280 shares
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?No 62% 10.38 shares
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?No 67.6% 37 shares
- Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Yes 7.4% 389.99 shares
- Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 82% 50 shares
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes 4% 499.88 shares
- Netanyahu out by June 30?Yes 0.5% 400 shares
- Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?No 21% 200 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?No 38% 100 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?Yes 32.9% 199.99 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21?Yes 82% 210 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?Yes 31% 90 shares