No position
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $5.85
- Potential payout
- $78
- Potential profit
- $72.15
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.17
Polymarket Trader
m4rc1e
0x286380b38709f3a96d5157d25daaa4f49dd11114
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $100.81
- Realized PnL
- $1.21K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $3.27
- Potential payout
- $77.78
- Potential profit
- $74.51
- Multiplier
- 23.81x
- User PnL
- -$3.73
No position
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $5.06
- Potential payout
- $77.78
- Potential profit
- $72.72
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$1.94
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $11.81
- Potential payout
- $63.82
- Potential profit
- $52.01
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- $4.79
No position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $20.1
- Potential payout
- $63.82
- Potential profit
- $43.72
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- $13.08
Liam Broady position
Jiujiang: Liam Broady vs Alexis Galarneau
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.16
- Potential profit
- $58.16
- User PnL
- -$35.45
No position
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $7.56
- Potential payout
- $54
- Potential profit
- $46.44
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- $0.54
Xinyu Wang position
La Bisbal: Xinyu Wang vs Alina Charaeva
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $52.47
- Potential profit
- $52.47
- User PnL
- -$30.88
Sandro Kopp position
Mauthausen: Sandro Kopp vs David Jorda Sanchis
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50.12
- Potential profit
- $50.12
- User PnL
- -$30.31
No position
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.4%
- Current value
- $4.18
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $45.83
- Multiplier
- 11.98x
- User PnL
- -$2.58
No position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $7.9
- Potential payout
- $43.87
- Potential profit
- $35.97
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- $0.88
Vitaliy Sachko position
Ostrava: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Vitaliy Sachko
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.62
- Potential profit
- $41.62
- User PnL
- -$24.08
Mariano Navone position
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $37.09
- Potential profit
- $37.09
- User PnL
- -$19.92
No position
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Ends Sep 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $6.35
- Potential payout
- $33.43
- Potential profit
- $27.08
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.67
No position
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $7.02
- Potential payout
- $33.43
- Potential profit
- $26.41
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $6.52
- Potential payout
- $33.43
- Potential profit
- $26.91
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Daniel Altmaier position
Valencia: Dusan Lajovic vs Daniel Altmaier
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.12
- Potential profit
- $33.12
- User PnL
- -$19.12
Luca Van Assche position
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.57
- Potential profit
- $32.57
- User PnL
- -$16.32
No position
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.7%
- Current value
- $2.33
- Potential payout
- $30.43
- Potential profit
- $28.1
- Multiplier
- 13.07x
- User PnL
- -$4.67
Mika Brunold position
Mauthausen: Miguel Damas vs Mika Brunold
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.53
- Potential profit
- $29.53
- User PnL
- -$15.19
No position
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Ends Aug 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $9.51
- Potential payout
- $29.25
- Potential profit
- $19.74
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- $2.49
Mattia Bellucci position
Cagliari: Mattia Bellucci vs Gianluca Cadenasso
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.62
- Potential profit
- $28.62
- User PnL
- -$17.55
Tung-Lin Wu position
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $28.17
- Potential profit
- $28.17
- User PnL
- -$16.03
No position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $3.37
- Potential payout
- $28.08
- Potential profit
- $24.71
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.65
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Jan 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.93
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.24
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.94
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.67
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.49
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.14
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.01
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.81
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.7
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.85
Texas position
Texas A&M vs. Texas
Ends Nov 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.43
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.92
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.06
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.75
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.91
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.68
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.17
Van position
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.41
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.79
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
Ends Feb 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.88
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.78
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.51
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
Ends Jan 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.51
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?No 33% 20 shares
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No 41% 16.19 shares
- Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 36.8% 17.89 shares
- Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 13.5% 50 shares
- Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?No 9% 77.78 shares
- Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 23% 30.43 shares
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?No 9% 77.78 shares
- Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?No 28% 25.07 shares
- Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?No 9% 78 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?No 25% 20 shares
- Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?No 21% 33.43 shares
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No 21% 33.43 shares