Yes position
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $375
- Potential payout
- $50K
- Potential profit
- $49.63K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$25
Polymarket Trader
BlackswanDefi
@Blackswan_DeFi
0x28c39a9fa9f3fbf7de6067c0247e48176972da06
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $14.16K
- Realized PnL
- $17.18K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $278.57
- Potential payout
- $42.86K
- Potential profit
- $42.58K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$21.43
Yes position
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $387.98
- Potential payout
- $36.95K
- Potential profit
- $36.56K
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$112
Yes position
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $225
- Potential payout
- $30K
- Potential profit
- $29.78K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$75
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $175
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.83K
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$35
Yes position
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $115
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.88K
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$65
Yes position
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $146.62
- Potential payout
- $6.52K
- Potential profit
- $6.37K
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- $16.29
No position
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $4.09K
- Potential payout
- $4.33K
- Potential profit
- $238.21
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $21.66
No position
Is Earth flat?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $3.42K
- Potential payout
- $3.5K
- Potential profit
- $82.25
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$8.75
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.4K
- Potential profit
- $3.4K
- User PnL
- -$704
No position
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 33%
- Current value
- $684.13
- Potential payout
- $2.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.39K
- Multiplier
- 3.03x
- User PnL
- -$205.26
Yes position
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $970
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.03K
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $290
No position
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $195
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.31K
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$330
No position
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 33%
- Current value
- $495
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- Multiplier
- 3.03x
- User PnL
- -$330
No position
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $882.22
- Potential payout
- $1.43K
- Potential profit
- $552.28
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $591.85
No position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.9%
- Current value
- $277.9
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.12K
- Multiplier
- 5.04x
- User PnL
- -$175.5
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.32K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Mezo FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.26K
- Potential profit
- $1.26K
- User PnL
- -$201.6
No position
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 68%
- Current value
- $738.13
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $347.35
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- $48.23
Yes position
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $125
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $874.99
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 91.9%
- Current value
- $367.6
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $32.4
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$7.2
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $96.35
- Potential payout
- $243.92
- Potential profit
- $147.57
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $71.96
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $148.79
- Potential profit
- $148.79
- User PnL
- -$8.48
No position
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $114.96
- Potential payout
- $121.91
- Potential profit
- $6.95
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$1.22
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.59K
No position
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.05K
Yes position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.89K
No position
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.27K
No position
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
Yes position
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $860
Yes position
Over $30M committed to the Loyal raise on MetaDAO?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $805.4
No position
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $753.62
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $682.92
Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $600
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $526.69
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $379.81
Yes position
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $372.42
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $368.85
Gane position
Aspinall vs. Gane
Ends Nov 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $230.77
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $200.7
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $200
Yes position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $198.07
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $182
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $178.33
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.6%
- Multiplier
- 21.98x
- User PnL
- $162.12
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.63
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $123.94
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Neymar play in the World Cup?No 6% 2,000 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: JuneSomething 10% 897.45 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 98.2% 6,000.17 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 7.8% 2,591.97 shares
- Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?No 68% 647 shares
- Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?Yes 95% 27.37 shares
- Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 1.4% 36,950.44 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 38% 2,500.01 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Yes 77.3% 1,499.99 shares
- Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 1% 30,000 shares
- Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 0.7% 42,857.14 shares
- Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 0.8% 50,000 shares