Polymarket Trader

polopilo

0x299cb40195d270438f8950902f242d796457d85e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.58K
Realized PnL: $6.98K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $121.49
Potential payout: $186.9
Potential profit: $65.42
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: -$1.87

No position

Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.4B?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $151.02
Potential payout: $183.06
Potential profit: $32.04
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$13.65

Yes position

Will "Attention" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $145.39
Potential payout: $173.08
Potential profit: $27.69
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: -$8.83

Yes position

Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $144.82
Potential payout: $149.68
Potential profit: $4.86
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $8.08

Yes position

Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $25B?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $141.71
Potential payout: $147
Potential profit: $5.29
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.88

No position

Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $114.83
Potential payout: $115
Potential profit: $0.17
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will "Understand" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $88.84
Potential payout: $96.04
Potential profit: $7.2
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$2.13

No position

Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $30B?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $67.86
Potential payout: $80.31
Potential profit: $12.45
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $3.81

No position

Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $78.68
Potential payout: $79
Potential profit: $0.32
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $47.74
Potential payout: $56.5
Potential profit: $8.76
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $3.11

No position

Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $47.93
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $0.07
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $43.8
Potential payout: $44
Potential profit: $0.2
User PnL: -$0.15

No position

Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $43.89
Potential payout: $44
Potential profit: $0.11
User PnL: -$0.02

No position

Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $43.8
Potential payout: $44
Potential profit: $0.2
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will Elon post "IPO" on X this week?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $15.94
Potential payout: $41.4
Potential profit: $25.46
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: -$17.01

No position

Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $40.59
Potential payout: $41
Potential profit: $0.41
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: -$0.33

No position

Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $38.98
Potential payout: $39
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: $0.02

No position

Will NYC Mayor post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $38.79
Potential payout: $39
Potential profit: $0.21
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $26.92
Potential payout: $35.19
Potential profit: $8.27
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$1.28

Yes position

Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 77%
Current value: $27.1
Potential payout: $35.19
Potential profit: $8.09
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: -$1.11

No position

Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $34.02
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $0.98
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$0.91

No position

Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $34.91
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $0.09
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Trump post "Knicks" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $12.3
Potential payout: $34.66
Potential profit: $22.36
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$20.84

No position

Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 79.4%
Current value: $26.46
Potential payout: $33.34
Potential profit: $6.88
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$5.88

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will "Left" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.38K

Yes position

Will Trump say "Etc." or "Et cetera" this week? (February 22)

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $342.47

No position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $302.49

No position

Will Coca-Cola say "Bacardi" during earnings call?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $209.16

No position

Will "Kawhi" or "Leonard" be said on ICEMAN?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.3

Yes position

Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,173,000 and $1,180,000 on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.84

No position

Will "Representing" be said 5+ times during Eurovision?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.04

No position

Will "Ghost" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.85

Yes position

Will Bernie Sanders say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" at the rally on Saturday?

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.5

Down position

XRP Up or Down - December 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.16

Yes position

Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?

Ends Dec 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.55

No position

Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.68

No position

Will "Amortization" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.1

No position

Will "Jurisprudence" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.1

No position

Will NVIDIA say "Gigawatt" during their next earnings call?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.64

Yes position

Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.56

Yes position

Will CZ post 0-19 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.02

No position

Will Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.11

Yes position

Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,136,000 and $1,161,000 on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.99

No position

Will Keir Starmer say "Deeply Concerning" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.71

No position

Will JD Vance say "Subsidize" in Des Moines?

Ends May 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.51

Yes position

Will the median home value in New York City be between $602,000 and $607,000 on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.73

No position

Will Costco Q3 US adjusted comparable sales growth be between 4.5% and 5.5%?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.23

No position

Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $300M?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.93

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.4B?

No 90% 175 shares
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.0B?

Yes 95% 6.22 shares
Will NIKE Q4 Greater China revenue be above $1.4B?

No 89% 8.06 shares
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%?

No 66% 100.9 shares
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%?

No 66% 86 shares
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

No 99.8% 23.99 shares
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

No 99% 15 shares
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026?

No 99% 5 shares
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?

No 88% 37.5 shares
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5

Under 95.7% 26.12 shares
Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9?

Yes 81% 5.19 shares
Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9?

Yes 80% 30 shares