140k

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $36.29
Potential payout: $1.61K
Potential profit: $1.58K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$73.7

Yes position

Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $687.5
Potential profit: $687.5
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $466.06
Potential profit: $466.06
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $19.8
Potential payout: $395.92
Potential profit: $376.13
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$15.2

Yes position

Will STRC hit $100 by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $334.17
Potential profit: $334.17
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.88
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $248.13
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $44.75
Potential payout: $182.65
Potential profit: $137.9
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$10.25

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $25.64
Potential payout: $146.49
Potential profit: $120.85
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$14.36

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $10.94
Potential payout: $109.43
Potential profit: $98.48
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$4.06

No position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $66.58
Potential payout: $106.53
Potential profit: $39.95
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $31.58

Yes position

Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $25.09
Potential payout: $92.94
Potential profit: $67.85
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$4.91

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $16.07
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $55.36
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $11.07

Something position

Nothing Ever Happens: June

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $62.5
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the May meeting?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.7
Potential profit: $61.7
User PnL: -$7.9

Yes position

Bill Gates charged by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.85
Potential profit: $55.85
User PnL: -$1.81

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $35.71
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.48
Potential profit: $34.48
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.96
Potential profit: $23.96
User PnL: -$6

Down position

SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.73
Potential profit: $22.73
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $5.98
Potential payout: $13.75
Potential profit: $7.77
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $0.98

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $120.09

Yes position

Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.5

Yes position

Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.56

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.17

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.48

No position

Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.65

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 660k+ BTC by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.86

Yes position

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.46

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.78

Yes position

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.75

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.58

No position

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.2%
Multiplier: 12.27x
User PnL: $5.78

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.63

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.96

Yes position

Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 25?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.44

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.79

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 36.5%
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: $2.62

Yes position

Will the U.S. national debt hit $40 trillion before 2027?

Implied probability: 92.8%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $2.59

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.35

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.23

Yes position

Will an FBI top ten most wanted fugitive be captured by June 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.13

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.76

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.69

No position

Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30?