Polymarket Trader

InsiderRadar.io

0x29fedb1e5b0d94cddd9a280cba521190a84122cf

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.01K
Realized PnL: $500.49
Win rate: 81.8%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 11
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2.94
Potential payout: $980
Potential profit: $977.06
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: $0.98

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $956.76
Potential profit: $956.76
User PnL: -$17.46

Yes position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $52.67
Potential payout: $829.5
Potential profit: $776.82
Multiplier: 15.75x
User PnL: -$5.27

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $91.53
Potential payout: $795.87
Potential profit: $704.35
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$9.99

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $696.36
Potential profit: $696.36
User PnL: -$114.5

Yes position

Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $693.6
Potential profit: $693.6
User PnL: -$132.8

No position

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $630
Potential profit: $630
User PnL: -$1.26

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $3.1
Potential payout: $564.38
Potential profit: $561.28
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$74.3

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $538
Potential profit: $538
User PnL: -$120.73

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $522.45
Potential profit: $522.45
User PnL: -$34.82

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $515.94
Potential profit: $515.94
User PnL: -$35.4

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.52
Potential payout: $503.66
Potential profit: $501.14
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$127.76

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.24
Potential payout: $495.08
Potential profit: $493.84
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$84.79

Yes position

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $430.58
Potential profit: $429.94
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 37.9%
Current value: $158.36
Potential payout: $418.39
Potential profit: $260.03
Multiplier: 2.64x
User PnL: -$2.02

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $334
Potential payout: $404.85
Potential profit: $70.85
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.59
Potential payout: $391.48
Potential profit: $390.89
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$22.59

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $79.74
Potential payout: $339.31
Potential profit: $259.57
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$3.48

Yes position

Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $330
Potential profit: $330
User PnL: -$1.98

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $306.67
Potential profit: $306.67
User PnL: -$27.6

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $284.02
Potential profit: $284.02
User PnL: -$22.14

Yes position

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $2.97
Potential payout: $283.33
Potential profit: $280.36
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$0.43

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $281.28
Potential profit: $281.14
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$8.08

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $279.65
Potential payout: $281.2
Potential profit: $1.55
User PnL: $35.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $256.94

Yes position

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.3

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.4

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.45

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.48

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.56

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.92

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $4.8

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.66

No position

Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 57% 242.18 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Yes 12% 80.17 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Yes 13% 99.08 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Yes 15% 53.33 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Yes 14% 77.14 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Yes 13% 71.08 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Yes 12.4% 81.92 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Yes 13% 86.15 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Yes 12% 247 shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Yes 26% 89.31 shares
Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Yes 7% 248.57 shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?

Yes 24% 250 shares