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Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $19.55
Potential payout: $300.72
Potential profit: $281.17
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$4.9

Yes position

Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $15
Potential payout: $200.01
Potential profit: $185.01
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.56

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $9
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $191
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$3.07

Yes position

Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $13
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $187
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$1.31

Yes position

Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $8.52
Potential payout: $189.4
Potential profit: $180.88
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$1.16

Yes position

Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $12.72
Potential payout: $169.59
Potential profit: $156.87
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $11.25
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $138.75
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0.58

Yes position

Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $125B by December 31?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $9.95
Potential payout: $104.75
Potential profit: $94.8
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$5.55

Yes position

Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $10.64
Potential payout: $101.31
Potential profit: $90.67
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will BP be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $11.5
Potential payout: $100.03
Potential profit: $88.53
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$2.15

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $5.5
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $94.51
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $11.5
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $88.51
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $8.5
Potential payout: $100.01
Potential profit: $91.51
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.51

Yes position

Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $11
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $89
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: $0.68

Yes position

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $12.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $87.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $8.08
Potential payout: $95
Potential profit: $86.93
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.63

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $10.92
Potential payout: $94.98
Potential profit: $84.06
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.72

Yes position

Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $5.12
Potential payout: $93.08
Potential profit: $87.96
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $10.8
Potential payout: $79.98
Potential profit: $69.18
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $10.35
Potential payout: $64.72
Potential profit: $54.36
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$0.65

Yes position

Will Malaysia recognize Israel by December 31?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $2.7
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $57.3
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $5.09
Potential payout: $59.9
Potential profit: $54.81
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.78

Yes position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $500B by December 31?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $4.28
Potential payout: $57
Potential profit: $52.73
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $0.59

Yes position

Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $11.62
Potential payout: $56.68
Potential profit: $45.06
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$0.53

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 7.2%
Multiplier: 13.89x
User PnL: $43.44

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.32

No position

Will Almanak FDV above $120M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.3

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.44

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 1.4%
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: $26.07

Yes position

Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20.33

Yes position

Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.29

Yes position

Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.99

Yes position

Clavicular charged again by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.39

Yes position

Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.37

Yes position

Will Caroline van der Plas become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.5

Yes position

Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.98

Yes position

Will anyone charged over daycare fraud in MN be deported by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.85

Yes position

Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.56

Yes position

Maduro in U.S. custody by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.54

Yes position

Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.03

Yes position

Variational FDV above $4B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 1.6%
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: $7.8

Yes position

Will Jorge Nelson Ávila Gutiérrez win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.74

No position

Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?