Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.67K
- Potential profit
- $3.67K
- User PnL
- -$340.89
Polymarket Trader
0x2A4a26bc1B728E8bdcD229B10E8002975D9dC3b0-1772612720507
0x2a4a26bc1b728e8bdcd229b10e8002975d9dc3b0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $666.77
- Realized PnL
- $1.28K
- Win rate
- 61.9%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 21
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.05K
- Potential profit
- $2.05K
- User PnL
- -$430.87
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.96K
- Potential profit
- $1.96K
- User PnL
- -$312.25
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.6%
- Current value
- $233.38
- Potential payout
- $1.08K
- Potential profit
- $849.59
- Multiplier
- 4.64x
- User PnL
- -$182.98
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $979.78
- Potential profit
- $979.78
- User PnL
- -$210.58
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $828.99
- Potential profit
- $828.99
- User PnL
- -$59
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $100.92
- Potential payout
- $651.1
- Potential profit
- $550.18
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$44.08
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $650.18
- Potential profit
- $650.18
- User PnL
- -$179.09
Yes position
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $649.59
- Potential profit
- $649.59
- User PnL
- -$18
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $609.69
- Potential profit
- $609.69
- User PnL
- -$221.75
Yes position
Epstein client list released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $578.46
- Potential profit
- $578.46
- User PnL
- -$159
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $100.73
- Potential payout
- $575.6
- Potential profit
- $474.87
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$79.27
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $461.04
- Potential profit
- $461.04
- User PnL
- -$72.64
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $422.8
- Potential profit
- $422.8
- User PnL
- -$41.55
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $34
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $366
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$26
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $361.11
- Potential profit
- $361.11
- User PnL
- -$129.69
No position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $354.54
- Potential profit
- $354.54
- User PnL
- -$108
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $338.99
- Potential profit
- $338.99
- User PnL
- -$74.76
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $318.18
- Potential profit
- $318.18
- User PnL
- -$35
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $113.15
- Potential payout
- $310
- Potential profit
- $196.85
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$8.45
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $232
- Potential profit
- $232
- User PnL
- -$78.6
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $84.59
- Potential payout
- $220
- Potential profit
- $135.41
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- $13.75
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $210
- Potential profit
- $210
- User PnL
- -$126
Yes position
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200.98
- Potential profit
- $200.98
- User PnL
- -$44
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $873.9
Yes position
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $395.79
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $291.53
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $185.34
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $108.87
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $99
No position
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.91
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.94
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.59
No position
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.24
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4
No position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.17
Yes position
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.8
Yes position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$56.11
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$56.79
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$80.07
No position
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$208.12
Yes position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$295.21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 32.2% 220 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 20.1% 200 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 8.4% 180 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 15% 400 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 9.7% 650 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 9.4% 700 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 8.2% 201.64 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 8.7% 229.68 shares
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No 31.3% 120 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 15.7% 18.8 shares
- Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Yes 43% 134 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 11.9% 161.7 shares