Yes position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $1.7
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $18.3
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$3.3
Polymarket Trader
0x2A6118fD5CC0dc06D1A77206a4407Cc6993C4020-1775976494527
0x2a6118fd5cc0dc06d1a77206a4407cc6993c4020
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $60.47
- Realized PnL
- -$5.06
- Win rate
- 61.1%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 18
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $15.36
- Potential payout
- $18.18
- Potential profit
- $2.82
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $5.36
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.7%
- Current value
- $13.77
- Potential payout
- $17.73
- Potential profit
- $3.96
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $3.77
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $9.53
- Potential payout
- $13.51
- Potential profit
- $3.99
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- -$0.47
No position
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.4%
- Current value
- $10.5
- Potential payout
- $12.02
- Potential profit
- $1.51
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $9.6
- Potential payout
- $9.76
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.95
No position
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $3.55
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.25
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.05
Yes position
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.88
Yes position
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.68
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.49
No position
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Ends Dec 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Clippers position
Spread: Clippers (-5.5)
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.09
Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.33
Yes position
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.17
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$12
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 55% 18.18 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 74% 13.51 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?No 82% 9.76 shares
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?No 83.2% 12.02 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 54% 22.22 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Yes 46% 6.32 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Yes 79% 6.33 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?No 97.6% 4.97 shares
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 56.4% 17.73 shares
- Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?No 95% 8.42 shares
- Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?Yes 85% 5.88 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?No 59% 16.95 shares