Polymarket Trader

crayven

0x2aacd459eaea420eb0d7b94c7b03238786c6dfad

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.79K
Realized PnL: $14.65K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.2%
Current value: $327.39
Potential payout: $3.58K
Potential profit: $3.25K
Multiplier: 10.93x
User PnL: $17.4

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $196.44
Potential payout: $3.25K
Potential profit: $3.05K
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: $42.31

No position

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $1.11K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $920.81
Potential profit: $920.81
User PnL: -$160

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.1%
Current value: $855.87
Potential payout: $910.02
Potential profit: $54.15
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $55.87

No position

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $714.29
Potential profit: $714.29
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $437.34
Potential payout: $667.7
Potential profit: $230.36
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $149.84

Yes position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $516.88
Potential payout: $519.48
Potential profit: $2.6
User PnL: $116.88

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 37.3%
Current value: $188.18
Potential payout: $505.18
Potential profit: $317
Multiplier: 2.68x
User PnL: -$21.82

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $414.04
Potential profit: $414.04
User PnL: -$96.15

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $384.46
Potential profit: $384.46
User PnL: -$220

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $367.56
Potential profit: $367.56
User PnL: -$15

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $301.65
Potential payout: $329.67
Potential profit: $28.02
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.65

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $112.81
Potential payout: $259.33
Potential profit: $146.52
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$11.67

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $117.75
Potential payout: $258.79
Potential profit: $141.04
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $17.75

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $196.2
Potential payout: $200.31
Potential profit: $4.11
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $96.2

Yes position

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $92.02
Potential payout: $200.05
Potential profit: $108.03
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: -$8.98

Yes position

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 64%
Current value: $119.23
Potential payout: $186.29
Potential profit: $67.06
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: $14.23

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $173.74
Potential payout: $177.64
Potential profit: $3.91
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $23.73

Yes position

Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $170.7
Potential profit: $170.7
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $153.33
Potential payout: $158.73
Potential profit: $5.4
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $53.33

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $156.28
Potential profit: $156.28
User PnL: -$70

Yes position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $156.26
Potential profit: $156.26
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$30

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will no vote occur on a new funding bill by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.72K

Yes position

Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.35K

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17K

No position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.16K

No position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.11K

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $920.8

No position

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $765.45

Senate position

Which chamber will move first on a funding bill?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $652.01

Yes position

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $578.86

Yes position

Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $475.8

Yes position

Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $470.9

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?

Ends Oct 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $383.65

Yes position

Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $352.74

No position

Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $350.62

Yes position

Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $346.33

No position

QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $335.98

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $207.25

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?

Ends Nov 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $192.12

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $192.06

Yes position

Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.73

Yes position

Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?

Ends Jul 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $170.75

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $168.52

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.06

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Yes 48% 10 shares
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Yes 48% 41 shares
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Yes 38.6% 258.79 shares
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Yes 48% 208.33 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Yes 31% 32.26 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

No 91% 219.78 shares
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

No 64% 15.63 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

No 91% 109.89 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 8% 17.48 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 92% 10.87 shares
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Yes 94.9% 105.37 shares
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 73% 136.99 shares