Polymarket Trader

crasus

0x2acbeabf433108c1dcdf34caa0eef6eac659faee

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $0
Realized PnL: $747.8
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.81K
Potential profit: $1.81K
User PnL: -$30.71

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.64K
Potential profit: $1.64K
User PnL: -$9.05

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $527
Potential profit: $527
User PnL: -$9.35

No position

Will Finland record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$12.5

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $223
Potential profit: $223
User PnL: -$13.38

No position

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $210
Potential profit: $210
User PnL: -$22.02

No position

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 41.0 on March 13, 2026?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$4

No position

Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $190
Potential profit: $190
User PnL: -$10.07

Yes position

Will the 2026 State of the Union address be less than 60 minutes long?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $176
Potential profit: $176
User PnL: -$15.84

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $160
Potential profit: $160
User PnL: -$43.2

No position

Will Great Britain record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $130
Potential profit: $130
User PnL: -$9.1

No position

Will the median home value in the US be between $420,000 and $425,000 by March 1?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $119.8
Potential profit: $119.8
User PnL: -$34.91

Up position

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$19

No position

Will Spain record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Trump say "Beautiful Coal" or "Clean Coal" during the Champion of Coal event?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$44

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.5 and 41.9 on February 27, 2026?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$22

Yes position

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 50M and 75M views in its first 7 days?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1.06

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be at least 43.0 on March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$6.86

Yes position

Will Partido Popular win <28 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.99
User PnL: -$2.1

No position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.99
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $92.72
Potential profit: $92.72
User PnL: -$1.11

No position

US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $60
User PnL: -$40.8

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on February 27, 2026?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194

No position

Will Partido Popular win 28-30 seats in the 2026 Aragon regional election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.48

Yes position

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.22

No position

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 13, 2026?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.4

Yes position

Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.55

No position

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.21

No position

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during the Champion of Coal event?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.48

No position

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on February 20, 2026?

Ends Feb 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35

No position

Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70?

Ends Feb 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.86

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.52

No position

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on March 6, 2026?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29

No position

Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.43

No position

Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 27, 2026?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.77

No position

Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 10% and 15.00%?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.5

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.77

No position

Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 80 and 90 minutes long?

Ends Feb 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.67

No position

Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during the Champion of Coal event?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.4

No position

Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 7?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.69

No position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?

Ends Mar 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 11?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.55

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 7?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.15

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.14

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?

No 99.9% 10.26 shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?

No 99.9% 10.23 shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?

No 99.9% 10.24 shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?

No 99.9% 8.15 shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?

No 68.1% 6.77 shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?

No 68.1% 10.28 shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?

No 68.1% 10.26 shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?

No 68.1% 10.25 shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?

No 68.1% 10.23 shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on July 16?

No 68.2% 8.15 shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 11?

No 42% 23.2 shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 11?

No 42% 3.81 shares