No position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.97
- Potential payout
- $967.41
- Potential profit
- $966.45
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$39.03
Polymarket Trader
Xiyai
0x2b357c405600c09156148500544df772b34a2ec5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $220.7
- Realized PnL
- $206.22
- Win rate
- 45.8%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $8.48
- Potential payout
- $892.86
- Potential profit
- $884.38
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- $1.48
Yes position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $35.69
- Potential payout
- $767.46
- Potential profit
- $731.77
- Multiplier
- 21.51x
- User PnL
- $6.69
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $33.25
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $316.75
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$1.75
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.7%
- Current value
- $12.71
- Potential payout
- $343.6
- Potential profit
- $330.88
- Multiplier
- 27.03x
- User PnL
- -$1.29
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.3%
- Current value
- $34.84
- Potential payout
- $214.4
- Potential profit
- $179.56
- Multiplier
- 6.15x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.83
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $165.83
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.17
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $15.58
- Potential payout
- $124.62
- Potential profit
- $109.04
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.42
Y
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $6.62
- Potential payout
- $115.06
- Potential profit
- $108.44
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- $2.62
Yes position
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.15
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.85
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.85
Yes position
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.4%
- Current value
- $8.24
- Potential payout
- $72.62
- Potential profit
- $64.38
- Multiplier
- 8.81x
- User PnL
- $3.24
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.2%
- Current value
- $13.42
- Potential payout
- $66.46
- Potential profit
- $53.03
- Multiplier
- 4.95x
- User PnL
- $9.42
Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $12.74
- Potential payout
- $52
- Potential profit
- $39.26
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.26
Yes position
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $2.85
- Potential payout
- $50.85
- Potential profit
- $48
- Multiplier
- 17.86x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Y
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $11
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $39
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $7.93
- Potential payout
- $38.7
- Potential profit
- $30.77
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- $1.81
Yes position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $2.13
- Potential payout
- $37.04
- Potential profit
- $34.91
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $3.86
- Potential payout
- $28.57
- Potential profit
- $24.71
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $0.85
- Potential payout
- $22.56
- Potential profit
- $21.71
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Yes position
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $3.89
- Potential payout
- $21.05
- Potential profit
- $17.16
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Y
Yes position
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.6%
- Current value
- $0.77
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $15.9
- Multiplier
- 21.74x
- User PnL
- -$1.23
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $3.91
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $2.34
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $1.91
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $77.85
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $70.92
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $29.26
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.48
No position
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $8.96
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.91
N
No position
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $5.36
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.3
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.67
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.39
Yes position
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.88
Yes position
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.6
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.82
No position
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.8
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?Yes 14% 28.57 shares
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?No 0.2% 500 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 0.6% 166.67 shares
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes 13% 84.62 shares
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 3.9% 153.85 shares
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 0.8% 750 shares
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 3.9% 516.84 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 10% 50 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 0.1% 5,343.34 shares
- Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?Yes 6.9% 72.62 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?Yes 2.5% 40 shares
- Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30?Yes 1% 100 shares